Tamil Nadu: A virtually orphan state

The choice of the people of Tamil Nadu of their favourite politician has not always been easy to fathom, especially by the rest of the country. After MG Ramachandran’s death, for instance, the mantle fell on the Tamil icon’s mistress, Jayalalithaa, with popular approval after a brief period when his wife, Janaki, was his inheritor.

It is not surprising, therefore, that the voters have chosen TTV Dhinakaran, who is the nephew of Jayalalithaa’s companion, Sasikala, as the person whom they prefer as Amma’s possible successor by handing him a convincing victory in the by-election for the RK Nagar seat, which was held by the former chief minister till her death.

Neither Sasikala’s incarceration on charges of corruption, nor the allegations against Dhinakaran about an attempt to bribe the Election Commission, nor the raids on him and his associates by institutions which are now widely regarded as the centre’s “caged parrots”, to quote what the Supreme Court said about the CBI, to tarnish Dhinakaran’s image had an adverse effect on his electoral fortune.

What his victory emphasises is that the masses do not regard either the present chief minister Edappadi K Palaniswami, or his predecessor, O Panneerselvam, as Amma’s legitimate successor – although the former was Sasikala’s nominee for the post and had replaced Panneerselvam, who claimed that he had been in touch with Jayalalithaa’s soul.

Of the three non-entities involved in the postJaya game of thrones – Palaniswami, Panneerselvam and Dhinakaran – the last named was a total outsider as he did not belong to any party and contested as an independent. But now, he is in a position to oust both Palaniswami and Panneerselvam and take over the AIADMK with the familiar trick of the floor-crossing by the aaya Rams and gaya Rams of present-day Tamil Nadu. Dhinakaran has set a time limit of three months be- fore the toppling takes place.

It is not impossible that such a takeover will give a boost to a refashioned AIADMK, thereby dashing its perpetual foe, the DMK’s hope that MGR’s and Jaya’s party will fade away and that the DMK will once again be the undisputed No.1 in the state. Its reduction, however, to the third position in the RK Nagar contest after Dhinakaran and the AIADMK show that the judiciary’s exoneration of Andimuthu Raja and Kanimozhi in the 2G scam has not helped the DMK. It appears that it will continue to be an uphill task for it in view of M Karunanidhi’s ill-health and the inability of MK Stalin to measure up to his father’s stature.

Although, the BJP has received fewer votes than the symbol for NOTA (None Of The Above), the party may now consider edging closer to Dhinakaran, asking him to forget the nearly 200 raids that were carried out by the income-tax department on the premises of Sasikala’s aides, includ- ing Dhinakaran, which the latter had descried as acts of political vendetta.

Since sections in the BJP, like Subramanian Swamy, look upon the DMK as secessionist and anti-Hindu, the AIADMK has been seen as the BJP’s natural ally – Jayalalithaa was a supporter of Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s government – and a Dhinakaran-led AIADMK may play the same role. As a party with hardly any influence in Tamil Nadu, the BJP will be pleased to have the backing of a new, popular leader although whether he will be interested in the BJP after its lacklustre showing in Gujarat is open to question. The BJP itself will have to brush off the allegations of opportunism because of its ties with an outfit with close links to the jailed Sasikala.

Whatever the outcome of these political permutations and combinations, the fact that Tamil Nadu will be in the midst of considerable flux in the foreseeable future is obvious, not least because Dhinakaran is an untested element in bigtime politics despite having been an MP and an MLA. How he will shape up, therefore, especially with Sasikala breathing down his neck even from behind the bars, cannot be said for certain.

It is certain that Tamil Nadu has been left with no prominent figures in active politics. The nonagenarian Karunanidhi has virtually retired, leaving no one to whom the people can look to for guidance and inspiration. After years under dominant leaders like K Kamaraj, CN Annadurai, Karunanidhi, MGR and Jayalalithaa, the state has suddenly become a virtual orphan.

Dhinakaran’s rise may have also paid to the tentative efforts which were being made by the two aging film stars, Rajinikanth and Kamal Haasan, to test the political waters in the hope that they will be able to fill the vacuum created by Jayalalithaa’s unexpected death. Now, they will probably have second thoughts, especially Rajinikanth who was showing an interest in the BJP. Since the BJP will undoubtedly be interested more in Dhinakaran than in Rajinikanth, the latter will have to bide his time till a more opportune moment, while Kamal Haasan will wonder about the political worth of both the DMK and the Congress, the parties closer to his heart than the AIADMK and the BJP.

The writer is a political analyst. The views expressed are personal.