Karnataka: Making sense of the exit polls

After weeks of political slugfest characterised by a highly aggressive campaign that turned into a street fight between the Congress and the BJP, Karnataka voted on May 12. The final turnout was a record 72.13 per cent, the highest since the 1952 state polls. On a counting day today, public attention will be focused on who forms the next government in Karnataka. In a three-party fight, there are three possibilities. One, the Congress gets the majority and forms the government. Two, the BJP gets majority and forms the government on its own. Three, in case of a fractured mandate, a coalition government will come to power with the help of the JD(S).

If you trust the exit polls – which Karnataka CM Siddaramaiah described as ‘weekend entertainment’ – and if their predictions hold today, then the probability of a coalition government coming to power is high. However, given the wild misses that characterise exit polls, the possibility of one party, either the Congress or the BJP, coming to power also cannot be ruled out. There are as many as nine exit polls, done by both national and regional news channels and agencies. Six out of nine polls have given BJP the edge, while three have put Congress ahead. Only three exit polls have predicted a clear majority. Of these, one has given the Congress a simple majority with 118 seats at the upper limit in a 224-member assembly, while the other two have predicted a win for the BJP with 120 seats and 114 seats, respectively. The rest have predicted a hung assembly.

The poll of polls average gives 98 seats to the BJP, 88 for Congress and 33 for JD(S). However, the poll of three polls which have put the Congress ahead throws up 102 seats for the Congress, 87 for BJP and 32 for JD(S), while the poll of five polls which have put the BJP ahead throws up 105 seats for the BJP, 79 for the Congress and 34 for JD(S). However, a possible scenario that also cannot be ruled out in a closely-fought election is a split verdict in which the JD(S) could play a crucial role. Most exit polls often go wrong. They probably miss the bigger picture because of complex nature of Indian electorate. But, taken together, they generally reflect a broad trend.

Caste factor, social coalition, swing, polarisation and floating votes play a crucial role in most elections, which, at times, are read incorrectly by psephologists and poll pundits. Some times their personal interpretations of key factors that influence voters also go wrong. That’s precisely what happened in Uttar Pradesh last year where nobody could detect a silent wave in BJP’s favour. Karnataka is as complex a state to predict as Uttar Pradesh. In absence of a wave favouring a particular party or strong anti-incumbency against the Congress government, a 3 per cent swing in favour of the Congress could give it a simple majority. On the hand, the BJP will need a 4 per cent swing to cross the half-way mark.

The outcome of a fractured mandate in Karnataka in the past has not been a happy one. History of electoral battles in Karnataka suggests that the voters have given a split verdict only twice: in 1983 and in 2004. On both occasions, voters may have regretted it. In 1983, the Janata Party, which was the single largest party with 95 seats, cobbled up a government under the leadership of Ramakrishna Hegde with outside support from the BJP, the Left and the independents. Hegde’s government didn’t last long. When the Janata Party fared poorly in the 1984 Lok Sabha polls, Hegde dissolved the assembly on the ground that he had lost the mandate of the people. In the subsequent election, the people rejected the uncertainty and voted for stability: the Janata Party won a majority with 139 seats in 1985.

In 2004, Karnataka got its first coalition government but the outcome was even messier. Though the BJP was the single largest party with 79 seats, the Congress with 65 seats formed the government with the support of the JD(S). Mid-way, the JD(S) ditched the Congress and came to power with the help of the BJP. The coalition collapsed a year later, leading to a fresh election in 2008 in which the BJP, under B S Yeddyurappa’s leadership, won 110 seats and formed a government with the help of independents. This was the first time that the saffron party formed the government in any south Indian state. However, amidst allegations of corruption, Yeddyurappa was forced to step down in 2011, though the government completed its five-year term under three chief ministers.

Karnataka is often referred to as a ‘swing state’. For nearly 25 years, no government has been reelected to power. Karnataka has swayed between the Congress and the BJP and has at times propelled JD(S) candidates to the chief minister’s post. However, an election analysis report by news channel NDTV suggests that lately, the anti-incumbency factor has significantly decreased. The report also suggests that the ability of sitting MLAs to get re-elected has also increased in the last two assembly elections. In the last 40 years, Siddaramaiah is the only chief minister to complete a full term in office. Opinion polls suggest that Siddaramaiah remains the most popular and favoured chief ministerial candidate, with approval rating much higher than his rivals Yeddyurappa and K D Kumaraswamy of JD(S).

In a bid to boost the BJP’s chances of coming to power in Karnataka, Prime Minister Modi – he tends to ‘nationalise’ every state election by converting the contest into a ‘Modi versus incumbent CM’ battle – was at his aggressive best during the second leg of his campaign between May 1 and 10. After a moral loss in Gujarat in December and setbacks in recent by-elections, BJP needs a victory in Karnataka to reopen a gateway for itself in the south as well as to send out a message to its cadre and supporters that the Modi wave is not waning. On the other hand, after a moral victory in Gujarat, the Congress needs a real victory. A win in Karnataka will help the Congress revive its sagging fortunes nationally and reposition itself strongly on anti-BJP platform. The Karnataka election assumes greater significance from the 2019 general election point of view. The winner will also get a major boost ahead of the four crucial state elections later this year.

The writer is an independent senior journalist.