WINDOW STILL OPEN FOR BJP

The Jammu and Kashmir Assembly was on Wednesday placed in a state of suspended animation and not dissolved. The Assembly will remain suspended till the Governor's rule is revoked, the proclamation said, noting that a situation has arisen in which the government of the state cannot be carried out in accordance with the Constitution of Jammu and Kashmir. Unlike other states, J&K is ruled by its separate constitution.

Since the Assembly has not been dissolved, opposition parties fear that the BJP-PDP divorce may be temporary, maybe up to the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, as the same coalition may again emerge with a different leader to stake claim to form the government.

How long Governor's rule will last is not clear. The J&K Constitution provides for six months which means it should end in December but indications are that it may be extended for another six months as the Centre can't risk a spurt of violence before the 2019 polls.

Reports from Srinagar indicate covert efforts made by the BJP over the past one year to wean away some PDP MLAs from the camp of Mehbooba Mufti, who had imposed herself as the chief minister after her father died mid-term. Two prominent PDP leaders are said to be in close touch with BJP point person Ram Madhav.

It is this ginger group that is being groomed by the BJP to force a change in the PDP leadership, so that a different chief minister can be installed as head of the same coalition once again.

The anti-defection law in J&K is different from the one applicable in rest of the country as it does not allow split in the legislative party and so the only scope for the BJP is to make the 28-MLA strong PDP elect a new leader. The BJP has a strength of 25 MLAs, sufficient to restore the coalition under a new leader.

Reports suggest that so far the ginger group in PDP was not able to goad more than half a dozen MLAs to press for a change in leadership. With Mehbooba no longer at the helm, it may be easier to wean away more MLAs. Some PDP MLAs who do not want a second innings with the BJP are reported to have approached Omar Abdullah but reports say he spurned their suggestion of the National Conference joining hands with the PDP to form the government.

Omar had made such an offer in January 2015 when no party was able to form the government. But he made it clear on Tuesday that such an offer died the day the PDP joined hands with the BJP and that it cannot be revived.