Article 370 abrogation has negligible impact for BJP

The Haryana assembly election results last week appear to have raised a glimmer of hope for the Congress party despite its depressing performance in the April-May Lok Sabha poll. The question is whether the tide is beginning to turn for the Old Lady of Bori Bunder!

Congressmen had not given themselves any chance of winning in Haryana. However, they were surprised with the final outcome, thanks to that old war horse and two time Haryana Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda.

The oldest political entity in the country pitched itself by taking up the cause of the people which facilitated it win 30 seats in the 90-member Haryana assembly. The BJP which came to power in Haryana for the first time in 2014 failed to get a majority this time around. At the same time forming the government for a second term on the trot in Haryana by heading a coalition was never in doubt, thanks to debutant Dushyant Chautala's Jannayak Janata Party bagging a fair chunk of ten seats and eyeing the Deputy Chief Minister's post.

That inevitably sealed the fate of the Congress. Having received a much needed shot in the arm after a spate of debacles in the last five years, Congressmen insist the anti-BJP streak evidenced in Haryana needs to be strengthened and capitalised on.

Raising several issues that have a direct bearing on the people like the deteriorating law and order situation coupled with massive loss of livelihood paid the Congress dividends. In the Lok Sabha elections earlier this year the BJP won all the ten seats in Haryana and its performance in the assembly left much to be desired.

Five years back the BJP managed a majority of two with 47 seats but failed to secure a simple majority this time even though it emerged as the single largest entity. The saffron party's record showing in the Lok Sabha elections by crossing the rubicon of 300 on its own for the first time failed to cast its shadow in the assembly elections both in Haryana and Maharashtra.

It was largely expected that the BJP will retain power in both these states. Even as the JJP aided them to suit their own interests, there was hard bargaining between the BJP and Shiv Sena with the latter staking its claim for the office of Maharashtra chief minister and upping the ante by demanding a 50:50 share in running the government.

This time around the Shiv Sena wants the BJP to give the arrangement reached in writing. The emphasis also pertained to sharing the office of Maharashtra Chief Minister by the BJP and Shiv Sena for two-and-a-half-years each.

Does the BJP's reduced numbers and not being able to have secured a majority in the 288-member state assembly points to its declining popularity? The saving grace is that Prime Minister Narendra Modi continues to hold sway on the electorate but not to the extent evidenced over the last five years particularly during the recent general elections. This has come to the fore both in Haryana and Maharashtra.

Therefore, what if Modi had not campaigned which might have proved disastrous for the saffron brigade. On the other hand the sustained campaigning by the old war horse and Nationalist Congress party supremo Sharad Pawar has sent shivers up the spine of the Maharashtra centric parties. Down to earth and keenly aware of the ground realities, Pawar underlined the need for a strong opposition in Maharashtra.

The abrogation of Article 370 according special status to Jammu and Kashmir has failed to have the desired impact on the outcome of the assembly elections both in Haryana and Maharashtra. This assumes significance as the crucial agriculture sector has been facing distress along with the problem of lack of jobs compounding matters in the economy.

The Congress must accept the blame for dragging its feet on one pretext or another like the recent assembly elections in electing a new leader. It has to face this question headlong particularly as the continued reliance on the Gandhi dynasty particularly Rahul Gandhi's stewardship has failed to turn things around.

Can the party turn a blind eye to the ineffectiveness of the dynasty being a rallying point among the masses over the last five years? Assembly elections are again round the corner in Delhi and Jharkhand, followed later in West Bengal which is a crucial state in the East being keenly eyed by the BJP. There is no doubt the BJP poses a serious threat to Trinamool Congress and its supremo who is also West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee credited with sending the Left Front packing.

Congress is trying to gear up with its interim President Sonia Gandhi putting in place an informal policy group which met Friday last and declared a national agitation between November 5 and 15 against the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership that the Prime Minister plans to sign in Bangkok in the immediate future.

Nevertheless, it might be too early to conclude that the election outcome in Haryana and Maharashtra is indicative of BJP's popularity being on the wane. There are other indications that the BJP's surging success over the last five years appears to be declining. The BJP's Article 370 abrogation gambit in respect of J&K failed to tickle the imagination of the people.

The difficult economic situation appears to have swayed the voters’ preferences. Impartial observers believe the opposition might have fared better this time around if there had been no infighting in the Congress in Maharashtra and Haryana. The fault lies particularly with the Congress High Command after Rahul Gandhi's decision to resign from the party president's post which hampered undertaking any serious campaigning.

Those who recently bid adieu to the Congress and other opposition parties to join the BJP might rue their career choices. Amid all this the Shiv Sena's performance in Maharashtra has made the junior partner more assertive and determined to secure its pound of flesh.

The writer is a senior journalist and commentator.