Trade deal will affect Indian dairy industry Livelihood of over 10 crore marginal farmers, whose sustenance depends on it, will be impacted

There is an element of irony as India and Gujarat roll out the red carpet to welcome US President Trump. The Narendra Modi government move to give the US access to it's dairy and poultry markets may help bail out the US milk industry but is set to hurt the state and consequently the country the most.

As a big-wig of the co-operative dairy sector in Gujarat put it on condition of anonymity, a trade deal with India may help Trump in his election year, but it will be detrimental to the Indian dairy industry and the livelihood of over 10 crore marginal farmers whose sustenance depends on it.

Gujarat remains the nurturing cradle of the dairy cooperative industry in the country. Indian dairy cooperative company, Amul, a brand managed by the Gujarat Co-operative Milk Marketing Federation(GCMMF) which has 3.6 million milk producers as it's members enjoy a revenue of 380 billion rupees(2018-19,US$ 5.3 billion).The bulk of these are small and marginal farmers or landless labourers.

That the US milk industry is in trouble is borne out by a very recent Time magazine report about falling milk consumption in Trump's country necessitating urgent bail-out measures. Americans each drank 146 lbs of fluid milk in 2018,according to the USDA s Economic Research Service, which is 26 per cent down since 2000. It is such and other factors which have led to Dean Foods,

America's largest milk producer, filing for bankruptcy protection last November. Borden dairy, another big name has followed suit thereafter. ”Declining sales in a thin margin business is not a good recipe for success', Mark Stephenson, director of dairy policy analysis at the university of Wisconsin has been quoted by the magazine as saying in it's January 20 issue. According to the report their were 605 fluid milk plants in America in 1990 of which only 450 were left by 2018.

Indian milk cooperatives and private dairies have been opposing opening Indian markets to global milk producers at the cost of Indian farmers, even otherwise. They had even petitioned the government to keep the sector out of the Free trade Agreement (FTA) under the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) which India chose to keep out of last year.

Niti Aayog has projected India's milk production to touch 330 mt by 2033 from the current 180 mt and the demand projection is around 292 mt which proves that the country does not require to import milk or milk products to take care of it's population even over the next 10 years.

According to available data US exports in dairy trade with a global export share of 4.9 per cent as against an import share of 2.8 per cent in 2018. India, on the other hand is liliputian in comparison with a share of 0.3 per cent and 0.06 per cent in global dairy exports and imports respectively in 2018.

According to a report by the Agriculture Skill Council of India while crop production generates 90 to 120 days employment to the rural work force, the dairy sector provides alternative employment and income throughout the year and accounts for 20.6 per cent of the combined output of paddy, wheat and pulses.

Dairy industry sources clearly feel US access in this sector is not only not in the interest of dairy industry in India but is bad news for millions of poor and landless farmers, particularly women in the rural areas who are its mainstay. Moreover, it will a setback to the Prime Minister's stated resolve of doubling farmers income by 2022.