More turbulence ahead in Pakistan

After a turbulent week in which Pakistan teetered on the brink of a constitutional crisis, it now has a new Prime Minister in Shehbaz Sharif. The previous incumbent, the ace cricketer-turned-politician, Imran Khan, had to be virtually bundled out, screaming and kicking since he refused to respect the Supreme Court order to conduct an orderly vote on the no-confidence motion against him. The Opposition had stitched together an opportunistic alliance, with the traditional rivals, Bhuttos’ Peoples’ Party of Pakistan and Muslim League (N) joining hands to oust Khan. Without a doubt, the hidden hand of the Rawalpindi GHQ consecrated the new alliance. No government in Pakistan can expect to survive long by antagonising the army. Khan paid for his folly, taking sides in the internal power equations in the top echelons of the army. Having become Prime Minister, thanks to the active support of the army, he now sought to disregard its wishes, seeking to interfere in the succession plans at the top once the current chief retires in November, or demands yet another extension. Indeed, it is unlikely that the apex court would have stood up so strongly for constitutionalism had Khan still enjoyed the army support. But, then, without the blessings of the army, the omnibus coalition against Khan would not have materialised in the first place. So fragile is elective democracy in Pakistan that no Prime Minister has completed his full five-year term. Khan is no exception. The new government too cannot be strong and stable, given the contradictions of rival alliance partners and a woeful lack of programmatic clarity. Yet, so serious is the economic challenge that it ought to persuade all relevant actors in the Pak polity to prioritise economic revival above all else. Pakistan’s rupee is at a record low, touching nearly 200 to a US dollar, its forex reserves are down to a month’s import bill. It stares at a debt default, begging, borrowing from IMF and China and whoever else is ready to underwrite a failing economy made worse by Khan’s whimsical management. Let us face it. Imran Khan was a first-rate cricketer. But he made a terrible Prime Minister, a prime minister who was so impervious to the hunger and pain of the people that he haughtily brushed off concerns about back-breaking inflation, dismissively remarking that he was not Prime Minister to keep track of the price of aaloo and pyaj. He did not know that the universe most people inhabited was far from the rarefied chambers where expensive perfumes and Hermes bags shimmered in the chandeliered lights and shadows and the likes of him frolicked in his earlier avatar as a global playboy. It was the masses whose main concern was the price of potatoes and onions who had taken him to heart, put him on a pedestal after he led Pakistan to the pinnacle of cricketing glory.

His charisma and the philanthropy associated with the cancer hospital he set up in his mother’s memory further embellished his image. Yet, he failed to provide a purposeful government. And now, by playing the foreign card, blaming America for his ouster, he is doing what no other Pakistani leader has dared to do thus far. For, till very recently it was axiomatic of Pakistani politics that no one could succeed by alienating any one of the three As, that is, Allah, Army, and America. In Khan’s case, he has certainly done everything to get two of the As, that is, the army and America, against him. On the other hand, the new Prime Minister Shehbaz enjoys a good equation with the army, in fact better than his elder brother Nawaj who too could not complete his term as Prime Minister after he incurred the wrath of the Rawalpindi GHQ. It is only to be expected that the existentialist crisis will keep Shehbaz from unsettling the current lull on the Indo-Pak border. The bilateral ceasefire on the LoC has been held since last February, though pro forma Shehbaz too paid lip service to their pet obsession, Kashmir. In the coming weeks, Khan threatens to muddy the situation further by getting his party MPs to resign en masse from the National Assembly. He reckons that the anti-America card is highly cashable. Like the Arab street where the masses are anti-America while the rulers are in cahoots with the US, anti-Americanism is a potent slogan. Yet, despite close ties with China, Pakistan cannot embrace anti-Americanism without paying a heavy price. Notably, China has refused to relax the terms of its debt either for the troubled Sri Lanka or for Pakistan, both of which have had to cede rights to various projects in lieu of its contribution to the on-going works. Khan threatens to create popular unrest in the coming days unless better sense prevails. For the sake of Pakistan, he should return to the path of an orderly democratic process.

COUNTDOWN TO 75 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE APRIL 16, 1947