High stakes for Cong. to sustain support it gained in 2023 polls
With a significant change in the political landscape of Karnataka in 2024, the ruling Congress now seems to be battleready, determined to put up a strong show in the Lok Sabha polls, despite many challenges on the ground.
What distinguished this general election is the largely bipolar nature of the contest between the Congress and the BJP, with the JD(S) having allied with the latter. The stakes are high for the party to sustain the support it gained in the 2023 Assembly polls. The election results would be largely seen as a referendum on the Congress government.
In 2019, the Congress had tied with the JD(S) and lost miserably owing to differences among leaders. Both parties managed to win one seat each. The Congress secured 32.11% votes in 2019 against the BJP’s 51.75% votes. However, the voting pattern reversed in the 2023 Assembly elections wherein the Congress bagged 42.88% and the BJP secured 36%.
The Congress, which has announced candidates in seven constituencies, is now grappling with the challenge of finding winning candidates in several constituencies. The reluctance on the part of the Ministers to enter the poll fray might make the task of winning seats challenging for Karnataka Congress.
This time, the Congress is going solo and seeks to cash in on the popularity of five guarantees it has implemented during the last 10 months. The appointments to boards and corporations and several propeople schemes in the State Budget seem to have boosted the morale of the cadre.
Knowing well the Karnataka voters’ tendency to vote differently in the Legislative Assembly and Lok Sabha elections, the Congress is attempting to seek the mandate by promising caste census nationally and several affirmative actions, including relaxation of reservation for SCs, STs, and OBCs fixed at 50% by the Supreme Court.
Both dominant communities of VeerashaivaLingayat and Vokkaliga supported the Congress in 2023. However, the party’s promise on caste census at the national level and prospect of implementing the now accepted State caste census report have caused some uneasiness among leaders of both communities.
The party’s good show in this election is an acid test of sorts for both Chief Minister Siddaramaiah and his Deputy D.K. Shivakumar. While winning more seats than the BJP is crucial for the former to continue to hold the post, for the latter it would be another cap in the feather to claim the Chief Minister’s post, amid speculations of change of guard midway of the Assembly term.
Both the Chief Minister and the Deputy Chief Minister responsibilities are largely twofold to counter Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity by flagging upfront the five guarantees; and crafting a message to counter the BJP’s narrative on Hindutva and infrastructure development.
Taking swipes at Mr. Modi’s leadership alone is unlikely to work and the Congress must offer a clear vision about its national leadership to strike a chord with a diverse range of voters, say experts.