Cy­clone brew­ing in Bay likely to tar­get Chen­nai next week

The Hindu Business Line - - COMMODITIES - VINSON KURIAN

The In­dia Met Depart­ment (IMD) has el­e­vated the out­look for a fresh low-pres­sure area over the An­daman Sea from a mon­soon de­pres­sion to that of a trop­i­cal cy­clone.

It has warned of ‘very rough to high seas’ (waves ris­ing to heights of 13 to 30 ft) over the South-West Bay of Ben­gal off the Tamil Nadu coast be­tween No­vem­ber 14 and 16, giv­ing an early in­di­ca­tion where the cy­clone could be headed.

Heavy rain for TN/AP

North Tamil Nadu and South Coastal Andhra Pradesh could re­ceive heavy to very heavy rain­fall dur­ing this pe­riod.

The causative low-pres­sure area over the Gulf of Thai­land and the Malay Penin­sula on Thurs­day morn­ing crossed over into the cen­tral parts of the An­daman Sea (South-East Bay of Ben­gal).

It is ex­pected to be­come a mon­soon de­pres­sion lat­est by Fri­day. The Myan­mar Depart­ment of Me­te­o­rol­ogy and Hy­drol­ogy, which is the clos­est mon­i­tor­ing sta­tion as of to­day, said the in­ten­si­fi­ca­tion may take place over the next two days.

The IMD ex­pects the sys­tem to move west-north-west from its cur­rent bear­ing, con­cen­trate into a de­pres­sion by Fri­day, and later into a cy­clonic storm.

This would take it to Chen­nai and neigh­bour­hood (mostly the im­me­di­ate south of the me­trop­o­lis) around No­vem­ber 14 (Wed­nes­day).

The cy­clone is be­ing gen­er­ated at a time when the en­tire Tamil Nadu is wait­ing for the first ful­some rain­fall ses­sion af­ter the North-East mon­soon ar­rived 15 days late.

Till now, only the south­ern parts of the State have recorded some mean­ing­ful rain thanks to the odd cy­clonic cir­cu­la­tion or lately a well-marked ‘low’ that has since dis­si­pated.

The north­ern parts of the coast (in­clud­ing Chen­nai) would have been best served with a con­ven­tional ‘low,’ given its po­ten­tial to stay for longer than a cy­clone and pro­duce sus­tained rain.

A cy­clone is a much stronger sys­tem, which, apart from the ob­vi­ous col­lat­eral dam­age it can in­flict on prop­erty and liveli­hoods, would rain it down heavy along an iden­ti­fied track, and not much be­yond.

Still in deficit

In IMD par­lance, the sea­son thus far (Oc­to­ber 1 to No­vem­ber 9) has de­liv­ered ‘nor­mal’ rain to the Met sub­di­vi­sion of Tamil Nadu and Puducherry. But it has a deficit of 19 per cent in ab­so­lute terms.

It is on the verge of be­ing de­clared a ‘de­fi­cient’ sub­di­vi­sion if the deficit grows any­thing be­yond. Neigh­bour­ing Ker­ala is bet­ter off with a deficit of only eight per cent.

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