Cy­clone Vayu set to in­ten­sify, mar rain­fall in West, South

The Hindu Business Line - - COMMODITIE­S - VINSON KURIAN

Cy­clone Vayu, lo­cated over the east­cen­tral Ara­bian Sea, could hit the prospects of sus­tained rain/show­ers for parts of the West Coast and South Penin­sula cov­ered by the mon­soon but the hia­tus may not last very long.

This is be­cause the Bay of Ben­gal is ex­pected to get into the act and toss up a cou­ple of low-pres­sure ar­eas, at least one of which will go on to be­come a de­pres­sion.

The Myan­mar De­part­ment of Me­te­o­rol­ogy and Hy­drol­ogy has al­ready hinted at this prospect, with the Cli­mate Pre­dic­tion Cen­tre of the US Na­tional Weather Ser­vices sup­port­ing it.

Se­vere cy­clone

By Tues­day noon, the In­dia Met De­part­ment (IMD) lo­cated Cy­clone Vayu over east-cen­tral Ara­bian Sea, about 340 km west-south­west of Goa, 490 km south-south­west of Mum­bai, and 630 km south of Ver­aval.

‘Vayu’ could in­ten­sify into a se­vere cy­clone by Wed­nes­day morn­ing, move nearly north­wards and cross the Gu­jarat coast be­tween Por­ban­dar and Mahuva, around Ver­aval and Diu re­gion, by early Thurs­day morn­ing.

The IMD sug­gested the se­vere cy­clone would re­tain its sta­tus at the time of land­fall with wind speed of up to 120 km/hr gust­ing to 135 km/hr. Heavy rain has been forecast for Konkan, Goa, Saurash­tra and Kutch and South Gu­jarat for four days un­til Fri­day.

The Joint Typhoon Warn­ing Cen­tre said that warm sea-sur­face tem­per­a­tures ex­ceed­ing 31 de­grees Cel­sius is favourable for ad­di­tional de­vel­op­ment. Wind shear val­ues are also turn­ing favourable.

In this man­ner, the en­tire West Coast, in­clud­ing Gu­jarat, would wit­ness the mon­soon make an on­set over the parched lands ac­com­pa­nied by heavy rain. A warn­ing in the form of a ‘red mes­sage’ has been is­sued for Saurash­tra & Kutch on Thurs­day.

Dif­fer­ing track out­look

Ac­cord­ing to IMD pro­jec­tions, the cy­clone would start weak­en­ing as its rem­nant trav­els along the west­ern fringes of Gu­jarat coasts and be­comes a de­pres­sion once it crosses the Rann of Kutch.

But the US agency takes the sys­tem out into the ad­join­ing North Ara­bian Sea wa­ters to­wards the Oman coast, a fa­mil­iar des­ti­na­tion for cy­clones dur­ing the on­set phase of the mon­soon along In­dia’s West Coast.

But what could likely pre­vent the mon­soon from be­ing swept away lock, stock and bar­rel into the West Asian des­ti­na­tion is its track along the West Coast of In­dia, help­ing bring in some much needed rain into the ad­join­ing in­te­rior.

On Tues­day, the Myan­mar na­tional agency said that the mon­soon has ad­vanced into the whole of the coun­try delayed by a week to 10 days. It said the mon­soon is strong over the An­daman Sea and the South Bay of Ben­gal and mod­er­ate else­where in the Bay.

On Mon­day, the Sri Lankan Met De­part­ment had an­nounced that the mon­soon had es­tab­lished firmly over the is­land. There­fore, pre­vail­ing windy con­di­tion is ex­pected to con­tinue over the is­land dur­ing next few days as well.

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