Cyclone Vayu set to intensify, mar rainfall in West, South
Cyclone Vayu, located over the eastcentral Arabian Sea, could hit the prospects of sustained rain/showers for parts of the West Coast and South Peninsula covered by the monsoon but the hiatus may not last very long.
This is because the Bay of Bengal is expected to get into the act and toss up a couple of low-pressure areas, at least one of which will go on to become a depression.
The Myanmar Department of Meteorology and Hydrology has already hinted at this prospect, with the Climate Prediction Centre of the US National Weather Services supporting it.
By Tuesday noon, the India Met Department (IMD) located Cyclone Vayu over east-central Arabian Sea, about 340 km west-southwest of Goa, 490 km south-southwest of Mumbai, and 630 km south of Veraval.
‘Vayu’ could intensify into a severe cyclone by Wednesday morning, move nearly northwards and cross the Gujarat coast between Porbandar and Mahuva, around Veraval and Diu region, by early Thursday morning.
The IMD suggested the severe cyclone would retain its status at the time of landfall with wind speed of up to 120 km/hr gusting to 135 km/hr. Heavy rain has been forecast for Konkan, Goa, Saurashtra and Kutch and South Gujarat for four days until Friday.
The Joint Typhoon Warning Centre said that warm sea-surface temperatures exceeding 31 degrees Celsius is favourable for additional development. Wind shear values are also turning favourable.
In this manner, the entire West Coast, including Gujarat, would witness the monsoon make an onset over the parched lands accompanied by heavy rain. A warning in the form of a ‘red message’ has been issued for Saurashtra & Kutch on Thursday.
Differing track outlook
According to IMD projections, the cyclone would start weakening as its remnant travels along the western fringes of Gujarat coasts and becomes a depression once it crosses the Rann of Kutch.
But the US agency takes the system out into the adjoining North Arabian Sea waters towards the Oman coast, a familiar destination for cyclones during the onset phase of the monsoon along India’s West Coast.
But what could likely prevent the monsoon from being swept away lock, stock and barrel into the West Asian destination is its track along the West Coast of India, helping bring in some much needed rain into the adjoining interior.
On Tuesday, the Myanmar national agency said that the monsoon has advanced into the whole of the country delayed by a week to 10 days. It said the monsoon is strong over the Andaman Sea and the South Bay of Bengal and moderate elsewhere in the Bay.
On Monday, the Sri Lankan Met Department had announced that the monsoon had established firmly over the island. Therefore, prevailing windy condition is expected to continue over the island during next few days as well.