The changing rules on onion export could impact election results
In Maharashtra, the impact of the Centre’s ips-ops on onion export policy may be felt in at least 12 parliamentary constituencies
In India, the rise in the price of onions has reportedly been a factor that inuenced the outcomes of some elections in the past. This time, it is not the price of onions which has the potential to have an electoral impact but the export policy of the Centre.
In December 2023, the Centre imposed a ban on the export of onions to stop surging local prices.
shows the average retail price for 1kg of onions in Mumbai and the quantum of onions (in tonnes) that arrived in the city’s markets, month-wise. Onion arrivals slumped in November-December 2023, leading to a demandsupply mismatch. This resulted in a surge in onion prices to over ₹60 per kg, and led to the export ban. Many farmers in the onion-growing districts of Maharashtra, especially Nashik, protested on the streets, blocked a national highway at three spots, and disrupted auctions in wholesale markets.
On April 25, 2024, in a surprise move, the Centre partially relaxed the indenite ban on onion exports and allowed “immediate” export of 2,000 tonnes of white onions, mostly grown in Gujarat. The State went to the polls 12 days later. This decision was criticised by the Opposition leaders and the onion farmers of Maharashtra.
On April 27, the Centre allowed the export of more than 99,000 tonnes of onions, mainly sourced from Maharashtra, to six neighbouring countries. On May 4, the Centre lifted the ban on onion exports. It also imposed a minimum export price of $550 per tonne and an export duty of 40%. The oniongrowing districts of Maharashtra voted on May 13 and May 20.
These continuous ip-ops have not gone down well with the onion farmers of Maharashtra, suggest reports. On May 15, more
Chart 1
than 50 farmers were detained in di¢erent police stations in Nashik, ahead of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the city. They had planned a protest along with the Opposition against the decisions regarding onion exports. Onion farmers and traders, especially in Nashik, have been up in arms for months now and have shown their anger by suspending onion auctions and going on a strike.
It is understandable why Nashik in particular is worried about the changing export policy, as the district is responsible for about 90% of onions exported from India
Given the circumstances, it will be interesting to see whether this will have an electoral impact in the 12 parliamentary constituencies, including the Dindori and Nashik seats in the Nashik district, which fall in the ‘onion belt’ of Maharashtra. The other seats are Shirdi, Ahmednagar, Dhule , Nandurbar, Jalgaon, Raver, Shirur, Baramati, Maval, and Pune.
Past election results in these seats show that the voters increasingly supported the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The BJP’s vote share increased from 25% in 2009 to 33% in 2014 to 36% in 2019. The Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and the Shiv Sena also have significant vote shares in the region ranging from about 15% to 27%, but their vote shares have stagnated in the last few years. The NCP and the Shiv Sena have both split into two parties each. While the NCP led by Ajit Pawar and the Shiv Sena led by Eknath Shinde support the the National Democratic Alliance, the NCP led by Sharad Pawar and the Shiv Sena led by Uddhav Thackeray support the INDIA bloc. In Nashik, the two factions of the Shiv Sena are in a direct ght in 2024. In Dindori, Sharad Pawar’s NCP is ghting against the BJP.
While the Congress’ vote share is relatively low in these seats, it has increased across elections. The past vote share and seat share in these constituencies is shown in
respectively.