Prime Minister plays down ‘400-plus’ slogan as Opposition plays up fear of brute majority
The shift in focus of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s campaign — from the Viksit Bharat (developed India) “Beyond 400” (seats) pitch to generating fear by saying “our women’s mangalsutra will be stolen by the Congress’s hand” — after the ¦rst round of voting has raised questions.
Playing up the majoritarian fear has always been a part of the BJP’s strategy, but after two terms in government, a distracted Opposition, and the entry of secular characters into the NDA, it appeared for a while as if the BJP is looking at a post-polarisation scenario in western Uttar Pradesh, where eight constituencies went to the polls in the ¦rst phase.
But this time, the Opposition has its counter-narrative of fear. Using the anxiety that the BJP’s 400-paar pitch is causing among the subaltern groups, the Opposition is portraying a brute majority as a precursor to changing the Constitution envisaged by B.R. Ambedkar and the reservation policy. It thus comes as no surprise that Mr. Modi did not refer to the magic number at the Aligarh rally on Monday.
The Congress manifesto was released on April 5, but it took Mr. Modi more than a fortnight to allege that the party was planning a redistribution of wealth with a Communist mindset.
A Minister in the BJP government in Uttar Pradesh said the Basic Structure of the Constitution would not be touched. “The Opposition is spreading fear. The amendments will be within the framework of the Constitution as has always been the case,” he said.
However, he could not back the ¦gure of 400 seats. A BJP worker, when asked about winning 400 seats two days after the ¦rst round, conceded, “It is just a rhyming statement made during polls such as Abki baar Modi sarkar.”
Such pragmatism was missing in the run-up to the ¦rst round of election. While Mr. Modi, in his rallies, assured crowds that winning 400 seats would help the government settle more di cult issues, BJP supporters in WhatsApp groups jumped to their own conclusions. In conversations with dierent caste groups on the ground, the upper-caste BJP voters reacted as if they had read the BJP’s Mann ki Baat for the next term. From it emerged a long list of what the party could do — a law on population control, disbanding of the Waqf board, and turning India into a Hindu Rashtra.
During the pre-poll campaign, it was clear that despite the BJP carrying out multiple rallies in every western U.P. constituency, there was an average 6.29% drop in turnout in the eight constituencies from the 2019 ¦gure.
The largest drop was recorded in Muzaarnagar — where the voting percentage dropped by 8.9 points — followed by Rampur, Bijnor and Kairana. Local observers said this drop could not be attributed solely to weather, weddings and harvest.
Those with an ear to the ground could see Mr. Modi changing gears with his Amroha rally on April 19, the polling day, when he deliberated on how the majority community suffered during the local Tigri Festival because of the appeasement politics of the previous governments.
It was a hyper-local factor that left observers surprised that a leader who was talking of Viksit Bharat was suddenly changing track. “We realised baasi kadhi ubal le rahi hai [a delayed show of enthusiasm],” said a seasoned local journalist, referring to the BJP’s return to raking up stale polarising issues.