2023 El Niño is among the strongest on record: WMO
Beachgoers cool off on a hot summer day at Agua Dulce beach in the Chorrillos district in Lima, Peru, in February.
The 20232024 El Niño has peaked as one of the five strongest on record and will continue to affect climate in the coming months despite a weakening trend, the World Meteorological Organisation
(WMO) said on March 5.
The U.N. agency also said abovenormal temperatures are predicted over almost all land areas between March and May. The prevailing El Niño conditions have already fuelled record temperatures and extreme events worldwide, with 2023 being the warmest on record.
In its latest update, the WMO said there is about a 60% chance of the El Niño persisting during MarchMay and an 80% chance of neutral conditions (neither an El Niño nor a La Niña) during AprilJune.
Scientists closely tracking the development in India have said La Niña conditions setting in by JuneAugust could mean monsoon rains will be better this year than they were in 2023.
El Niño is the periodic warming of the
Continuing El Niño and abovenormal seasurface temperatures over global oceans are expected to lead to higher temperatures over most land areas in the next three months
ocean surface in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. It occurs every two to seven years on average and typically lasts nine to 12 months at a time. It is associated with more rainfall in the Horn of Africa and the southern U.S. and dry and warm conditions in Southeast Asia, Australia, and southern Africa.
“Ocean surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific clearly reflect El Niño,” WMO SecretaryGeneral Celeste Saulo said. “But seasurface temperatures in other parts of the globe have been persistently and unusually high for the past 10 months. The January 2024 seasurface temperature was by far the highest on record for January. This can’t be explained by El Nino alone.”
Scientists say an El Niño typically has the greatest impact on the climate in the second year of its development — 2024 in this instance.
The continuing, albeit weaker, El Niño and predicted abovenormal seasurface temperatures over much of the global oceans are expected to lead to abovenormal temperatures over almost all land areas in the next three months, according to a WMO update.
The current El Nino event, which developed in June 2023, was strongest in NovemberJanuary. It induced a peak value of about 2 degrees C above the 19912020 average temperature in the eastern and central tropical Pacific Ocean. This made it one of the five strongest El Niño events ever.
“El Niño events have a major impact on societies and economies. Accurate seasonal forecasts from the WMO community helped countries prepare in advance to try to limit the damage in climate sensitive sectors like agriculture, water resources and health,” Ms. Saulo said.
“Early warnings of weather and climate extremes associated with El Nino have saved countless lives.”