Global trade growth likely to accelerate in 2024: DHL and NYU
Globalisation reached a record high in 2022 and stayed almost as high in 2023, despite global shocks over the past decade, such as the COVID19 pandemic, wars in Ukraine and Gaza, and the U.S.–China trade row, DHL and New York University’s Stern School of Business said in a report released on Wednesday.
The two entities in their study, “New DHL Global Connectedness Report 2024”, also said the share of global output traded internationally was back to a record high level in 2022.
After a slowdown in 2023, trade growth is forecast to accelerate in 2024, they forecast.
The report tracks how flows of trade, capital, information, and people move around the world and measures the globalisation of 181 countries and territories.
Globalisation of information flows has notably surged over the past two decades, even though latest data show a slowdown, partly due to less research collaboration between the U.S. and China.
Corporate globalisation is rising, with companies expanding their international presence and earning sales abroad, they said.
‘Globalisation, a force’
“The most recent findings unequivocally dispel the notion of globalisation reversing course,” said John Pearson, CEO DHL Express. “Far from being a mere buzzword, globalisation is an influential force that has profoundly reshaped our world and has great potential,” he added.
The report ranked Singapore as among the top most globalised countries followed by the Netherlands. According to it, 143 countries became more globally connected, while only 38 saw their levels of connectedness decline.
Further evidence shows that Europe is the world’s most globally connected region, followed by North America and the ‘Middle East & North Africa’.
The report’ also shows that U.S.China ties continue to diminish, with the shares of both countries’ flows involving each other decreasing by about onequarter since 2016.
“Deglobalisation is still only a risk, not a current reality,” said Steven Altman, Senior Research Scholar and Director of the DHL Initiative on Globalisation at NYU Stern’s Center for the Future of Management.
“Geopolitical threats and public policy shifts have led many to predict a fracturing of the world economy along geographic or geopolitical lines, or even a retreat from international to domestic business,” he said.
But the latest data, according to him, still show that international flows are growing and very few countries are cutting ties with their traditional counterparts.