Nine Lok Sabha seats, where DMK, AIADMK and BJP are fighting it out, saw a mixed bag of results in 2009 and 2014

A mixed bag of results was seen in the 2009 and 2014 polls in nine Lok Sabha constituencies where the three lead parties of their respective fronts — the DMK, the AIADMK and the BJP — are contesting now.

In 2009, the ruling DMK won in six constituencies while the AIADMKled front won three seats. The former bagged North Chennai, Vellore, Tiruvannamalai, Namakkal, the Nilgiris and Perambalur. The AIADMK captured South Chennai and Pollachi, while its ally, the CPI (M), won Coimbatore.

Five years later, the AIADMK swept all the nine seats. The election results of 2019 were not considered, as it had an electoral understanding with the BJP.

In 2009, the DMK front included the Congress, the IUML and the VCK. The AIADMKled coalition comprised the PMK, the MDMK, the CPI and the CPI (M). The BJP had tieups with many unrecognised parties.

In 2014, the AIADMK, then the ruling party, and the Congress contested independently, while the DMK had allies such as the Puthiya Tamilagam and the Manithaneya Makkal

Katchi (MMK), in addition to the VCK and the IUML. The BJP’s partners were the PMK, the MDMK and the DMDK. Coincidentally, in Vellore and Perambalur,

A.C. Shanmugam and T.R. Paarivendhar, who are now contesting on the BJP’s symbol, did an identical act 10 years ago, too.

A comparison of the performance of the three parties in the two polls reveals that in 2014, the DMK uniformly suffered an erosion in its vote base when compared to its showing in 2009. Even in Chennai, a traditional stronghold of the party, the Dravidian major polled about 10 percentage points lower than it did previously in North and South Chennai. The AIADMK, which had generally improved its performance, had, however, seen a moderate rise in its vote share where the BJP and its allies did well.

This can be illustrated by the performances of the AIADMK and the BJP in a couple of constituencies. In South Chennai, the AIADMK’s vote share in 2014 went down by about 2% when compared to 2009, even though it emerged the winner. At the same time, the BJP, supported by the DMDK, the PMK and the MDMK, polled nearly 23.8%. Likewise, Pollachi, which was bagged by the AIADMK in 2009 and 2014, saw the party being able to record a modest rise of about 1.5 percentage points, as the BJP, which was represented by E.R. Easwaran of the Kongunadu Makkal Desiya Katchi (KMDK), secured a vote share of about 27%. In contrast, in Tiruvannamalai and Namakkal, where the AIADMK registered an increase in its vote share by about 12.5% and 21%, respectively, the BJP’s 2014 allies, the PMK and the DMDK, netted around 14.8% and 13.9% of the votes polled. An inference can be made that if the fray did not have strong nonDMK and nonAIADMK nominees — to cite a few examples — say, in South Chennai and Pollachi, the vote share of the AIADMK would have been higher.