In battle for Maharashtra, Assembly election, not Lok Sabha polls, will settle political scores
The battle for Maharashtra, considered the most hard-fought in the Lok Sabha election, is being seen only as the precursor to the all-out war of the Assembly election to be held in less than six months after the ongoing election.
The political upheaval in Maharashtra began after the Assembly election in 2019, when the Shiv Sena walked out of the Mahayuti, or the NDA, in the State and formed the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) government with unlikely allies, the Congress and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP).
That unlikely combination of allies in the MVA redrew the political geography of the State dramatically, upending support bases and creating grudge matches that are yet to reach their conclusion.
Two years ago, Chief Minister
Eknath Shinde, along with a large number of Shiv Sena MLAs and MPs, split the party and brought down the MVA government. He got the Chief Minister’s chair, the party’s bow-and-arrow symbol, and the party name Shiv Sena (Balasaheb Thackeray).
A year before the Lok Sabha election, Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar also split his party, the NCP, rebelling against his uncle and senior leader Sharad Pawar. With the party symbol going to the Ajit Pawar faction, the senior Pawar is in the same situation as in 1999 when he launched the NCP — a new party just weeks before election.
Hard bargain
These splits have led to hard bargaining within the alliances over seat-sharing for the Lok Sabha election.
In the MVA, the most number of seats were bagged by the Shiv Sena (UBT), led by Uddhav Thackeray, which will be contesting 21 seats. The Sharad Pawar-led Nationalist Congress Party (NCPSharadchandra Pawar) will contest 10, and the Congress 17.
The seat-sharing was not without pains, with the Congress giving up its claim on Sangli for the Shiv Sena (UBT) and on Bhiwandi for the NCP (Sharad Pawar). This hard bargaining is clearly aimed at the extrapolation of claims when it comes to Assembly seats later.
Again, despite giving in, the Congress is not without skin in the game in Sangli, as Vishal Patil, grandson of former Chief Minister Vasantdada Patil, is standing as a rebel candidate for the seat. The Shiv Sena (UBT) has elded the two-time winner of “Maharashtra Kesari” wrestling title Chandrahar Patil.
In the Mahayuti, the BJP is contesting 28 seats, the NCP (Ajit Pawar) four, the Rashtriya Samaj Party supported by the NCP (Ajit Pawar) one, and the surprise in the pack, the Shiv Sena (Shinde) 15. Mr. Shinde’s hard bargaining when no one expected to see him get into double digits in the seat share, is again aimed at better claims on seats for the Assembly election.
Both factions of the Shiv Sena and the Sharad Pawar-led NCP have fought for and got these seats not just to express claims later, but also to make sure that the new party symbols Shiv Sena (UBT)’s aming torch, and NCP (Sharad Pawar)’s man blowing “turha” or traditional trumpet, are by then popularised in these areas right on time for Assembly polls.
On the chess board of Maharashtra politics, where the game is moving at lightning speed, the Lok Sabha is just a seminal. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, ghting for his third tenure, is a big factor that can obscure a lot of local grudges and equations. For the nal reckoning of the events let loose in 2019, however, the Assembly polls will have to be awaited, with the Lok Sabha polls an interregnum to put the set pieces in place.