Citi upgrades India to ‘overweight’ on stable earnings, growth view

Citigroup analysts upgraded India to ‘overweight’ from ‘neutral’ in their emerging-markets allocation on Friday, citing strong earnings and economic growth momentum.

The brokerage expects India’s blue-chip NSE Nifty 50 index to rise 7% between now and the end of the current nancial year ending March 2025.

The Nifty 50 closed at 22,055.2 on Friday. It had underperformed the MSCI Emerging Market Index in 2024 so far. Citi’s view is underpinned by the expectation India’s economy will remain strong, growing at 6.8% in the current scal.

The estimates imply an earnings CAGR of 13% for FY24-FY26, with the trajectory broadly stable, Surendra Goyal, MD and head of Indian research at Citigroup, wrote in a note.

Meanwhile, Citi downgraded China to ‘neutral’ from ‘overweight’, saying the recent rally in its stock markets occurred despite weakening fundamentals.