All three fronts fancy their chances in battle for capital

Hoping to wrest the constituency after 15 years, the LDF has pinned its hopes on Mr. Raveendran, who had last won it for the coalition in a byelection held in 2005. The election is bound to become a litmus test for the LDF which has been suffering an eroding vote base over the years – its vote share has slid from 51.41% during the byelection in 2005 to 25.6% in 2019.

Mr. Chandrasekhar, the NDA candidate, is a threetime Rajya Sabha member and he will be contesting a Lok Sabha election for the first time.

Having secured vote shares above 30% to finish second in both polls in 2014 and 2019, the BJPled coalition is banking heavily on the vote base it has cultivated over the years.

Assembly segments

The Lok Sabha constituency comprises seven Assembly segments, viz., Kazhakuttam, Vattiyurkavu, Thiruvananthapuram, Nemom, Parassala, Kovalam and Neyyattinkara. Barring Nemom where the NDA secured the highest number of votes, Mr. Tharoor earned significant leads in all other segments in the 2019 elections.

However, the LDF turned the tables on its rivals in the 2021 Kerala Assembly elections by winning almost all segments with Kovalam (won by UDF) being the lone exception.

Major forces

The Nair community and certain minority sections, including the Nadar community, are generally considered the major forces to reckon with in Thiruvananthapuram. The contentious issues surrounding the fisherfolk, including the agitation against the Vizhinjam international seaport project, could determine the voting pattern along the coastal belt.

While the NDA will look to consolidate the majority vote bank by utilising the consecration of the Ram temple in Ayodhya as a poll plank, both the UDF and the LDF have been banking on the contentious Citizenship (Amendment) Act as well as the Centre’s stance towards the armed conflict between Palestine and Israel for electoral gains.