Congress, CPI(M) and BJP harbour strategies beyond 2024 elections
As the State gears up for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls on Friday, the Congress, the CPI(M) and the BJP harbour distinct strategic objectives hinging on the poll outcome.
A stellar performance like in 2019 could reignite the Congress’ mojo post its 2021 Assembly poll debacle. The CPI(M) is probably aiming at increasing the number of MPs to maintain its national party status. The Left coalition it leads may remain intact until the 2026 Assembly polls and the party has no serious worries on other counts. The BJP is laying the groundwork for the next Assembly polls.
In normal circumstances, the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) roughly share the 20 seats in the State. However, the present situation appears to be exceptional, similar to that in 2019.
For the ruling CPI(M) in the State, its survival instinct has become relevant in Parliament, as it had won just a seat, Alappuzha, in the 2019 elections. By transforming electoral battles into war zones through its muscular party machinery, the CPI(M) may notch up additional seats this time.
Through vigorous campaigning against the CAA, the party leadership is anticipating that the UDF will not secure the same 65% of Muslim and 70% of Christian votes as in the 2019 polls. Even if the party underperforms, it has the option for course correction before the Assembly polls, sources said.
Replicating success
For the Congress, the leadership is striving to replicate the success of 2019 banking on the anti-incumbency against the LDF government. Congress leader Rahul Gandhi’s candidacy in Wayanad is expected to once again attract support from the Muslim and Christian communities.
However, if the party fails to secure 10 or more seats, it could likely disrupt coalition politics, with the anti-Congress faction in the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) upping the ante against the Congress leadership. The bone of contention over the winnable Rajya Sabha seat, which falls vacant in July, will further escalate, particularly if Sha Parambil of the Congress wins from Vadakara.
For the BJP, the visit of Prime Minister Narendra Modi ve times to Kerala this year and his manoeuvred outreach programmes to various Christian denominations has turned bipolar State polity in a tripolar character in many constituencies this time. The party is aspiring to make a quantum jump in its vote share. Securing a seat or two would be a bonus for the BJP.
A good show can reignite Congress’ mojo while CPI(M) aims at increasing number of its MPs