Number of children has more to do with development than religion
Educating girl children, stopping child marriage, and increasing access to family planning measures will reduce fertility levels
nce again, the Muslim population has become a point of discussion. Last month, Prime Minister Narendra Modi referred to Muslims in India as “those who have a large number of children”. A Data Point published on April 23 showed that the fertility rate of Muslims was 2.36 in 201921, much closer to the replacement level. The fertility rate is the average number of children a woman is expected to have in her lifetime. A rate of 2.1 (the ‘replacement level’) means that the population is stable.
This month, the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister concluded that while the share of Muslims in the total population increased by 43.15% between 1950 and 2015, the share of Hindus decreased by 7.82%.
Data show that the number of children one chooses to have has more to do with socioeconomic parameters than religion. Government data show that educating girls and not marrying them o early, creating more awareness about family planning, and ensuring access to family planning measures help reduce fertility levels.
The fertility rate of Muslim women varies according to region. For instance, the fertility rate of Muslim women in Bihar was 3.6 in 201921, much higher than the 2.0 in Maharashtra. Similarly, the fertility rate of Muslim women was 1.9 in Tamil Nadu and 2.0 in Karnataka, much lower than the 2.7 in Jharkhand and 2.4 in Rajasthan. The answer for why fertility levels drastically vary among Muslim women across dierent regions lies in how developed a State is not just economically but also socially.
Chart 1 plots the percentage share of women aged 2024 years who got married before becoming adults against the Muslim fertility
Orate, as of 201921. The trend line shows a strong positive correlation, which means that fertility rates were higher in States where a higher share of women were married o early. Chart 2 plots the percentage share of the female population who were literate against the Muslim fertility rate, as of 201921. The trend line shows a strong negative correlation, which means that the fertility rates were lower in States where the share of literate women was higher.
A major concern is also lack of awareness about family planning. In 201921, close to 25% of Hindu women said they had never heard or seen a message about family planning via radio, TV, newspapers, wall paintings or the Internet. Among Muslim women, the share was higher at 30% (Chart 3).
Even among women who were aware and wanted to limit the number of children they planned to have, or wanted more space between children, a signicant share was unable to do so due to lack of access to family planning measures. Chart 4 shows the share of unmet demand for family planning among Hindu and Muslim women across select States in 201921. Unmet demand refers to the share of women who want to limit or space out children, but are unable to do so.
In most States, the unmet demand among Muslim women was higher than Hindu women. In States such as Haryana, Bihar, and Jharkhand where the fertility rate of Muslim women was high, the unmet demand was also high. In these States, the gap between the unmet demand between Muslim and Hindu women was much wider too.
Increasing awareness about contraceptive measures and enhancing access to them, educating girl children, and stopping child marriage — all functions of the government — will reduce the fertility rates among all the religious groups at a much faster rate.