A high-stakes battle in south Kerala
While UDF has elded sitting MPs in Thiruvananthapuram, Attingal, Kollam and Pathanamthitta, LDF is hoping to make advantage by elding two MLAs, an ex-Minister and a CPI veteran. The BJP is also pinning much hopes by bringing in two Union Ministers, an act
he Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) seems to face an unenviable situation as the Lok Sabha election campaign edges to a climactic close in four constituencies in south Kerala on April 24.
The UDF has a reputation to live up to and a legacy to defend in Thiruvananthapuram, Attingal, and Pathanamthitta, where the incumbents are veteran Congress leaders. A key UDF ally, the Revolutionary Socialist Party (RSP), represents the Kollam LS seat.
Hence, the UDF is racing for record stakes this election. However, playing the defending champion has its perils, given the onerous disadvantages of incumbency. Being shunted out of power for two consecutive Assembly terms in Kerala, the UDF’s ght seems a high-risk gamble aimed at stymieing the Left Democratic Front (LDF) and stopping a BJP surge simultaneously. The UDF also hopes that a favourable poll outcome will lay a path to victory for the Opposition in the 2026 Assembly polls.
In contrast, the LDF and the National Democratic Alliance
T(NDA) campaigns seem unencumbered by such political baggage. Moreover, 10 years of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s rule has radically altered the electoral eld, rendering it almost unrecognisable compared to 2019. In more ways than one, the LS polls in 2024 are no quiet contest compared to past Parliament elections. It seems to have acquired the contours of a culture war between secular-liberal forces and a sizeable conservative population that has rooted its world view in the Sangh Parivar brand of muscular Hindutva. Given its sizeable Christian and Muslim populations, the echoes of the deeply polarising electoral battle are perhaps most palpable in Kerala.
In sharp relief
Unemployment, the costof-living crisis, and the growing rich-poor divide seem suddenly relegated to the back burner. The polls have cast Manipur, Citizenship (Amendment) Act (CAA), triple talaq, National
Register of
Citizens (NRC), and other divisive issues in worryingly sharp relief.
Rahul Gandhi’s candidature from Wayanad powered the Congress’s 2019 Lok Sabha campaign in Kerala and brought the party rich dividends. However, much water has own under the bridge since. Perhaps Shashi Tharoor, who is testing his wits against Communist Party of India veteran Pannian Raveendran and BJP’s “newcomer” and Union Minister Rajeev Chandrasekhar, best senses the change. Mr. Tharoor has represented Thiruvananthapuram for three consecutive terms. The three-pronged ght is among the mostwatched in the State. The LDF has cast the contest as a battle between a working-class leader and two “out-of-touch” elitists.
Splitting minority votes
The LDF has likened Mr. Tharoor’s presence in the constituency to that of a migratory bird. Nevertheless, given his nearly one lakh majority in the 2019 polls, Mr. Tharoor represents a formidable challenge. In contrast, the BJP appears xed on depriving the LDF and the UDF of any advantage by attempting to split minority votes, particularly in the coastal area, by making overtures to the Church and harping on about shoreline protection and sherfolk rehabilitation.
In Attingal, BJP candidate and Union Minister V. Muraleedharan is attempting to build on the momentum his party colleague Shobha Surendran gained in 2019.
Ms. Surendran increased the BJP’s vote share from 10% to 24% in 2019. Mr. Muraleedharan is locked in a three-way contest with Congress incumbent Adoor Prakash, MP, and Communist Party of India (Marxist) [CPI(M)] Thiruvananthapuram district secretary and legislator V. Joy.
Since 2019, Mr. Muraleedharan has been a permanent xture in Attingal’s social and political calendar. In contrast, Mr. Joy is a dark horse for the MP’s seat despite his apparent strengths as the legislator representing the Varkala Assembly segment, a part of the LS constituency. The three leaders hope that support from the Ezhava community, a crucial but politically divided electoral bloc in the segment, will propel them to victory.
In Kollam
Cinema can sometimes be a nishing school for parliamentary politics. For one, in Kollam, two actors, M. Mukesh, MLA, of the CPI(M) and G. Krishnakumar of the BJP, use star power to catalyse their respective campaigns. However, their match-up with incumbent MP N.K.
Premachandran appears formidable, given the RSP leader’s history of felling titans like M.A. Baby (2014) and K.N. Balagopal (2019) in the battle for Kollam.
The LDF campaign appears plagued by the fear of the BJP’s last-minute tactical voting to buoy Mr. Premachandran’s chances. Mr. Premachandran’s tête-àtête luncheon with Mr. Modi and his “praise” for the latter’s development agenda seem to crystallise the worry. Hence, the LDF has cast the BJP’s campaign in Kollam as a decoy duck.
Stance of Church, NSS
Congress leader and former Chief Minister A.K. Antony’s son, Anil K. Antony’s defection was a major scalp for the BJP. Hence, the BJP has pointedly thrust Mr. Anil Antony into the LS campaign for Pathanamthitta to make the battle awkward for incumbent MP and Congress leader Anto Antony.
Mr. Anil Antony’s candidature has lent ammunition to the CPI(M) candidate and former Finance Minister T.M. Thomas Isaac to depict the Congress and the BJP as twin sides of the same coin. Church, rubber politics, Nair Service Society support and human-wildlife conict presumably have an outsize say in the constituency.