‘Trump policy would not differ from the past on China, India’
Former Trump administration official says there will be fierce U.S.China competition, and the continued building up of strategic alliances and partnerships with countries including India
As the U.S. elections increasingly look like a Trump v/s Biden rematch from 2020, U.S. Foreign policy will differ on certain issues like Russia and support to the UN depending on who wins, but there will be continuity on issues like China and the IndoPacific, says former Trump administration official Lisa Curtis. Speaking to The Hindu on the sidelines of a “QuadPlus” conference in Manila, Ms. Curtis, who was earlier a Deputy Assistant to the U.S. President at the National Security Council (201721) and is now the Director of the IndoPacific Security Program at the Center for a New American Security, said the presence of IndianAmericans in the fray is a “coming of age” for the Indian diaspora community in the US.
Do you think 2024 is going to see a 2020 election redux with a Biden versus Trump rematch?
I think that’s the way it’s looking, even though I think the American electorate is not thrilled about these two choices. You hear people talk about President Biden’s age, you hear people talk about January 6th (2021) when it comes to President Trump and all of the charges and indictments against him. This might mean a lower voter turnout this year. So that is a concern.
You were a part of the earlier Trump administration. Would a possible Trump 2.0 be significantly different from what we saw then?
I don’t think I see a tremendously different foreign policy than what we saw in the first Trump administration. And I think if you look at some of the accomplishments with the first Trump administration, there would be a continuation of that.
The Biden administration continued with the IndoPacific strategic framework, which President Trump signed in 2018. And it drove the rest of the administration’s policy toward China and toward the IndoPacific. There will be fierce U.S.China competition, and the continued building up of strategic alliances and partnerships with countries like Japan, Australia, India, the Philippines, etc.
How much would change?
If you’re talking about a country like India, for example, I think that we would not see major changes. There’s been bipartisan support over the last 20 years, whether it’s Republican or Democrat, favouring building up the relationship with India, building up India’s capability so that it can play a stronger role in the IndoPacific and help with that balancing with China.
However on Ukraine, President Trump has made some statements, which are worrisome for Europeans — calling on NATO partners to “pay their bills or step up on their own defence” and that the U.S. would give an open door to Russia.
How much could change in terms of foreign policy style the surprise tweeting for example?
Well, people don’t really change their personalities overnight. So I think it probably would be a similar style, a little bit of unpredictability and some surprises here and there.
To be sure many times there was a method to the madness, and many decisions [Mr. Trump took] had in fact been thought through even if they were announced suddenly and appeared from the outside to be totally off the cuff.
The election already has an IndianAmerican flavour. Vice President Kamala Harris, Vivek Ramaswamy, Nikki Haley have all been prominent. Does their presence affect ties with India?
I think what they signify is that it is not unusual to have an IndianAmerican to vie for the top slot or to be the second any more, it’s become quite common. That’s a sign that the Indian American community has really come of age in the U.S. When it comes to the bilateral relationship, there may be a tangible added comfort especially in peopletopeople ties. But when it comes to the policies of the Republicans or the Democrats, I don’t think it matters as much.