A worrying prospect for the Congress
The party has faced a daunting task this election
STATE OF PLAY
As the BJP has made intense e¢orts to gain a foothold in Kerala’s bipolar political landscape, the Opposition Congress has faced a daunting task this time. The Lok Sabha election results will probably help the party leadership better understand and navigate the challenge.
A week ago, Kerala Pradesh Congress Committee (KPCC) president K. Sudhakaran, who had temporarily handed over charge to senior leader M.M. Hassan following his candidature from the Kannur Lok Sabha constituency, assumed his role once again after ghting aggressively for it. Mr. Sudhakaran probably sensed that the Congress central leadership may replace him if the party does not perform well. But even if the party does well, his reinstatement is not guaranteed, considering the reshufes within the party after every other election.
Two senior Congress leaders, Rahul Gandhi and AICC general secretary (organisation) K.C. Venugopal, contested the elections from Kerala. A second win for Mr. Gandhi may seem assured in Wayanad, but his opponents included the feisty CPI leader Annie Raja and BJP State president K. Surendran. Thus, there is a likelihood of a reduced victory margin for him from the 4.31 lakh in the previous election. Mr. Gandhi also entered the race in Rae Bareli in Uttar Pradesh.
If Mr. Venugopal wins Alappuzha, a constituency he represented from 2009 to 2019, he will wrest the lone seat won by the CPI(M) in 2019. However,
the margin of victory will also be closely observed. BJP State vice president Shobha Surendran’s entry in the contest for the Alappuzha Lok Sabha seat altered the electioneering dynamics in the constituency. The BJP nominated her to ensure that Mr. Venugopal, who ranks second in the party after AICC president Mallikarjun Kharge, does not win easily.
Some high-prole Congress candidates are ghting from constituencies with three-way contests. The Congress chose former KPCC president and sitting MP of Vadakara, K. Muraleedharan, to ght from Thrissur to take on actor-politician Suresh Gopi of the BJP, who secured almost one-third of the total votes polled in 2019. If Mr. Muraleedharan loses, it will lead the Congress central leadership to believe that his sister, Padmaja Venugopal, who dramatically joined the BJP before the elections, is more inuential in Thrissur, which is perceived to have been their late father K. Karunakaran’s efdom, even though she herself has not won any electoral battles.
Nonetheless, some of his supporters already portray his candidature as a form of martyrdom, given his decision to heed the party leadership’s request to take on Mr. Gopi. When all the sitting Congress MPs were re-nominated, the Thrissur MP, T.N. Prathapan, was supplanted.
A fourth consecutive victory for Congress Working Committee member Shashi Tharoor from Thiruvananthapuram would further solidify his stature in Kerala politics and also elevate his status nationally. On the contrary, a defeat would deal a severe blow to his political career in Kerala, and potentially force him to withdraw from the capital city’s political arena. His critics within the Congress may then highlight his contentious style of functioning and tendency to antagonise senior party leaders.
Benny Behanan is seeking re-election from the Chalakudy constituency. This is where the edgling Twenty20, a political party backed by a corporate group, has put up a candidate. If Mr. Behanan loses, the Congress will have to face the challenge of accommodating the aspirations of the Christian middle-class population, which is dominant in the constituency and shown an inclination towards the Twenty20’s brand of politics.
The decision of the Congress to nominate Sha Parambil, its legislator from Palakkad, to contest from Vadakara was made with two objectives. The rst was to retain the seat after Mr. Muraleedharan was shifted to Thrissur. The second was because the party did not have a single Muslim candidate and nally chose him to contest from a sensitive seat. Whether this was the right move remains to be seen.
There is already talk of several disgruntled Congress leaders preparing to leave the party and of the BJP aggressively pursuing its agenda to poach them. This trend will become more pronounced if the INDIA bloc fails to dislodge the BJP-led government at the Centre.