The transition to a better Cuba will not be easy

And Donald Trump could make it harder

FIDEL CASTRO was many things to many people . As Cuba mourns him, his fans offer praise for how he stood up to the United States in the name of Cuban independence and provided world-class health care and education to poorer Cubans. But his achievements were outweighed by his drab legacy. Much of that human capital was wasted by his one-party system, police state and the stagnant, centrally planned economy. Cubans say Mr Castro was “like a father “to them. They are right: he infantilised a nation. Anyone with initiative found ways to leave for exile abroad.

This is the baleful legacy that Raúl Castro, Fidel’s younger brother and successor as president since 2008, must deal with. He has been trying to reform the economy, allowing small businesses, promoting private farming and welcoming some foreign investment. But he has been as determined as his brother to keep Cuba’s one-party system intact. And his cautious economic progress has now almost ground to a halt. That coincided with the thawing of the cold war between Cuba and the United States, with the restoration of diplomatic ties after 54 years in 2015. The big question, then, is whether Fidel’s death means that reform in Cuba will resume. The answer is probably yes, but not immediately. And the fate of Cuba, as ever, will be shaped partly by what happens in Washington.

The main reason for expecting economic reform to revive is necessity. Cuba has been propped up by petrodollars from Venezuela, another failed neo-stalinist state in Latin America. But Venezuela is now almost broke, and aid has therefore been trimmed. Cuba’s economy grew by only 1% in the first half of this year. Unlike Fidel, Raúl is keen on the “market socialism” of Vietnam and China. He should allow more types of private enterprise (for example, in professional services) and free wholesale markets. A crucial reform is to unify the two forms of peso currency, and devalue, which would create incentives for exports and investment. Raúl has repeatedly postponed this, because he fears that it would create losers before it creates winners. That is especially so because the American economic embargo remains in place, despite Barack Obama’s removal of some curbs on tourism and business dealings with the island.

Much therefore depends on Donald Trump. The president-elect hints that he may reverse Mr Obama’s opening. This would be a mistake on two counts. Renewed isolation would cut Cuba off from the trade and investment it needs to smooth the way for economic reforms. And history shows that isolation causes the regime to dig in, making political reform more difficult. If Mr Trump is wise, he will build on Mr Obama’s policy and support the further opening of Cuban society.

A tale of Havana and have-nots

Raúl, who is 85, plans to step down as president in 2018. He is less popular than Fidel; his successors are even less likely to be able to build a personality cult like that of El Commandante. The budding private sector means that fewer people depend on the state. Cubans, especially the young, yearn for change.

The alternative is that a post-castro Cuba would become more like Vladimir Putin’s Russia, with a few political and military bigwigs looting their way to untold riches. Throwing up walls around Cuba would prepare for that wretched outcome, by giving the regime an excuse for its failure to improve living standards. Long-suffering Cubans deserve better.

AP Cubans say Fidel Castro was 'like a father' to them. They are right: he infantilised a nation.