The Y-factor: Under-30 voters per seat more than last time’s winning margin

five states, 29 per cent of the electorate — an averageofonelakhvotersineachofthe403 seats — is under 29 years. This is almost seven times the average winning margin of 14,869 votes in the last state assembly elections in 2012.

UP’S 4.05 crore young voters include 24.25 lakh first-time voters in the 18-19 age group.

Out of the five states, Manipur has the highest proportion of under-30 voters — closeto5.94lakh,whichworksoutto33per cent of the total voters. In Uttarakhand, this figure roughly stands at 32 per cent of the electorate.thisaddsuptoabout34,451such voters in every seat in the state, which is seventimesthe2012averagewinningmargin.

According to poll analysts, the large number of youngsters is expected to influence the turnout in all five states, especially Punjab and Goa, which are witnessing a three-cornered contest — between the BJP, Congress and AAP — in a majority of constituencies.

A new player in the electoral field, expertssuggest,couldenthusetheyoungsters to come out in larger numbers and vote.

“Theyoungwereindifferenttoelections, but in 2010 the EC started educating them aboutregisteringthemselvesasvoters.now theirnumbersaresignificantlylargeandthe increase in voter turnout every year is because of this age group. I feel they can influence the outcome of an election,” said former chief election commissioner S Y Quraishi.

That would probably explain why political parties — in Punjab, especially — have startedwooingtheyouthasaseparateelectorate.

The Congress manifesto promises at least one job to every household (55 lakh) in Punjab, a stipend of Rs 2,500 for the jobless, an end to the drug menace within four weeks of coming to power, and one-lakh taxis/commercialvehicleseveryyearforunemployed youth. The BJP-SAD alliance has promised 10 lakh jobs over five years, free laptops and free higher education for girls.

AAP, on the other hand, released a separate youth manifesto in Punjab and Goa. In Punjab, it has promised 25 lakh new jobs in five years, entrepreneurial/skill centres and anendtofavouritisminpublicemployment, among other things.

Some analysts, however, cautioned against exaggerating the influence of youth in swinging the verdict.

“Age is still not a cleavage in Indian elections because the young, too, are divided alongtheirotherloyaltiessuchascasteidentity and religion. We are yet to see an electionwheretheyoungareseenvotinginlarge numbersforoneparty.itwassomewhatnoticedinthedelhiassemblypollsin2015and slightlyin2014loksabhaelections,buteven thenthewinningpartydidn’tgetmorevotes among the young compared to their averagevoteshare,”saidpoliticalscientistsanjay Kumar of the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS).