Absolute conquest, absolutely

The ‘400-plus’ ambition seems less a statement of the party’s aspiration, more the assertion of a government’s power

IN 2019, THE Narendra Modi-led BJP set itself a goal of 300-plus seats — “Ab ki baar, 300 paar”. Five years later, it has ramped up the target. “Ab ki baar 400 paar”, it says, as it exhorts workers to ensure at least 370 more votes at every booth, amid talk of crossing the 50 per cent vote share mark. Here’s looking at a party that has ambition and says it too.

What could possibly be unsettling about that?

Look again, and 400 is not just a number. It is 400 pieces of a diverse people’s multi-coloured mandate. In a country of cross-cutting cleavages and a million moving parts, and seen alongside the BJP’S other proclaimed ambition of “Ram Rajya for the next 1000 years”, “400-paar” begins to take on the ring of abiding conquest and a permanent majority — not representation that is accountable and moveable, always tenuous and constantly on test.

Listen to the voices from the ground during an Indian election and even among voters who support Hindu dominance as an idea whose time has come, you might hear the argument thatthewinnershouldnottake all, and not for long anyway. “If this government, or any government,doesnotdo…wewill bring in another one five years later”, they say, even in the poorest neighbourhoods of UP, MP and Bihar. You hear those whootherwisefeelhard-doneby asserting the power of their vote to bring about an alternation of the powerful. They give their vote, others say, to one party in the state and to a different one at the Centre. Because in a “lok tantra (democracy)”, no one person or party should be given all the power. Because that could become a licence for “manmaani (unaccountability)” and arrogance, “ahankaar”.

Underlying voices such as these is an unselfconscious confidence in the existence of preconditions for free expression and change -- mutually agreed upon norms and shared rules of the game, countervailing institutions that ensure a level playing field, independent and empowered referees. And no obstacles in legitimate political mobilisation by the Opposition.

Look around you today, however, and a question mark looms large: Is “400-paar” a statement of a party’s aspiration or has it become an assertion of its government’s power?

Is it the pursuit by the BJP government, with all the resources and agencies at its command, watchdog institutions on mute, of a BJP fantasy of “Opposition-mukt Bharat”? Or a rearrangement of the arena to its advantage, by hobbling national rivals, Congress and an AAP that was spreading its wings, so that it is BJP versus much smaller and narrower regional parties?

Two chief ministers have been arrested on the eve of elections, the second one, Arvind Kejriwal, after the model code of conduct came into force. Congress has been served with income tax notices of thousands of crores, some dating back to demands from 1994-95, as campaigning kicks off in 2024. In the name of fighting corruption, ED-CBI action, under stringent laws that set a high threshold for bail, selectively and disproportionately targets non-bjp politicians and parties.

This, even as other corruption questions are raised by the electoral bonds data recently made public — concerning the proximity of the purchase of bonds with ED-CBI action, or with the award of business contracts by the government. Meanwhile, a lengthening line of politicians from other parties, corruption cases against them, find themselves magically relieved of pursuit by central agencies on joining the BJP.

The BJP is an all-conquering force in the states too. In Himachal Pradesh, Congress’s cross-voting MLAS, who enabled the BJP to help itself to the lone Rajya Sabha seat, have joined it. In Punjab, the old Congress is said to be the new BJP. In Maharashtra, the BJP played a key role in splitting rival parties and then allied with the splinters and shards. In MP, and in several other states, to screen the inflow of Congress workers ahead of the election, it has set up “joining committees”. The BJP has already achieved its “Congress-mukt” ambition in the Northeast with an array of Congressmen-turned-bjp chief ministers — Pema Khandu, Himanta Biswa Sarma, Manik Saha, N Biren Singh.

It isn’t, though, that should the BJP’S slogan come true, a 400-paar government will be unprecedented. Formed after the assassination of Indira Gandhi in 1984, the Rajiv Gandhi government had 414.

There is a lesson from the life and times of that government that stumbled in many crises, from Punjab to the Shah Bano case, from Sri Lanka to Bofors — largeness of mandateisnoguaranteeofbetter governance, or even greater efficiency.

Thereisalsoasoberingcontrast: Opposition activity did not come to a standstill even withthecentreruledbyaparty with a commanding majority. In fact, it started within the Congress, and spread quickly.

The VP Singh rebellion became the nucleus of the opposition within — Arif Mohammad Khan, Arun Nehru, Ram Dhan, Satya Pal Malik — and later the National Front government, supported by the BJP and Left, which displaced the Congress from power. The late 1980s and early 1990s also saw a striking rise in regional forces. NTR’S Telugu Desam, for instance — though the incident of alleged humiliation by Rajiv Gandhi of an Andhra CM at an airport, said to be the trigger, took place before Rajiv became PM, NTR made it the centrepiece of a “Telugu atma gauravam (Telugu pride)” campaign subsequently.

Compare the ’80s with the state of the Opposition today, and the difference is stark. Today, the BJP’S political opponents face its aggression at a time when they have been steadily losing their own mojo.

The weak AAP protests in the days after Kejriwal’s arrest speak of a party demoralised by the Modi government’s declaration of asymmetrical war. But they also point to a party organisation that, despite its flashy successes, is still only a half-formed appendage of the Leader. Other parties, be it BJD or DMK, JD(U), TMC or SP, are struggling with ageing leaders and/or waning organisational capacities.

The fights-to-the-finish that accompany the BJP’S war cry of “400-paar” take place in this depleted political and institutional setting. That is why, for the system, the party’s high goal strikes a note of warning.

The Rajiv Gandhi government had 414 seats. There is a lesson from the life and times of that government that stumbled in many crises — largeness of mandate is no guarantee of better governance, or even greater efficiency.