PUNJABIYAT DIPLOMACY

Maryam Sharif’s speech at Kartarpur Sahib seems an olive branch to Delhi. India must proceed with cautious optimism

SPEAKING TO AROUND 3,000 Sikh pilgrims at Kartarpur Sahib, Maryam Nawaz, the Chief Minister of Punjab and heir apparent of three-time Pakistan Prime Minister and PML(N) supremo Nawaz Sharif extended an olive branch to India. She invoked the linguistic and cultural similarity among Punjabis on both sides of the border. Pakistan's Punjab is the country's largest province and much of its political, military and cultural elite is Punjabi. Maryam spoke of friendship with India, religious tolerance and celebrating Eid, Baisakhi and Holi. Quoting her father, she said, “don’t fight wars with neighbours... open the doors of friendship... open the doors of your hearts”. Behind Maryam's emotional appeal are the hard economic and geopolitical realities confronting Pakistan. Less than a month ago, Pakistan's Foreign Minister Muhammed Ishaq Dar said that “Pakistani businessmen want trade with India” and that his government was “seriously considering” the matter. Rawalpindi and Islamabad are also faced with increasingly restive Western borders with both Afghanistan and Iran. The Army, too, may want a measure of stability on the eastern front.

Maryam's outreach is of a piece with earlier attempts at improving bilateral ties. As Chief Minister of Punjab in 2013, Shehbaz Sharif (now PM) made it a point to visit Punjab on his visit to India. In 1999, Parkash Singh Badal, then CM of Punjab in India, visited Lahore with Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee. There have also been attempts at deeper cross-border economic and energy cooperation. As recently as 2014 —after Shehbaz's visit in 2013 — Pakistan evinced interest in importing power from India. In India, GAIL was receptive to the idea of supplying natural gas across the Wagah border from Jalandhar. Unfortunately, the cooperation did not materialise, not the least because of the Pakistan Army scuppering them. The PML(N), Nawaz Sharif in particular, has often faced resistance from Rawalpindi because of its overtures to India. Now, though, things appear to be different. Maryam’s statement, for example, would not have been possible without at least tacit support from the Army – there is no doubt that the current government in Pakistan is supported by the Army.

A major stumbling block in bilateral ties, especially after the August 5, 2019 abrogation of Article 370, has been Pakistan’s intransigence on the “Kashmir issue”. The new government seems to be continuing that trend, with President Asif Ali Zardari calling for the restoration of special status this week. PM Shehbaz Sharif too has made similar statements, as has the Army. However, the fact also is that the relationship has been stalled because of the “core concerns” on both sides — terrorism for India and Kashmir for Pakistan. The current moment may provide an opening to pick low-hanging diplomatic fruits, especially restoring trade ties. What is needed over the next few weeks is quiet back channel diplomacy, especially of the kind that led to the 2021 ceasefire along the Line of Control — this ceasefire has largely held. Behind-the-scenes conversations can lay the ground for the next Indian government after the Lok Sabha polls to move the needle forward.