BJP may gain a foothold in non saffron states
reap a rich haul of 18 seats in Andhra Pradesh, minus Telangana. The Telangana Rashtra Samithi, headed by K. Chandrashekar Rao, will be the clear winner in Telangana, with 14 out of the total 17 seats on offer. As far as the BJP is concerned, with its vote share hovering around 17-18%, it can benefit with an alliance with the TDP, which holds influence in both Telangana and AP. TDP is projected to win the six seats it won the last time yet again. However, the BJP may cross the threshold of 20% vote share by the time elections are held and even win a few seats, making it the number two in Telangana.
In Assam, the Congress seems to be getting a breather from reverses elsewhere, with the party projected to retain the seven seats it won last time. The BJP will gain one more seat to take its tally to five, out of the total 14 seats on offer. However, with its vote share likely to be over 20%, the state will see a bipolar contest, with reduced scope for regional players to do well.
In Haryana, the BJP is set to benefit from the anti-incumbency against the Congress government in the state. The party, which did not win any of the ten seats in fray in 2009, will win half-a-dozen seats this time. The Congress’ tally is projected to fall to a single seat from the nine it won the last time around. In fact, the Aam Aadmi Party is set to emerge as the number two in Haryana, with its vote share likely to eclipse that of the Congress.
In Kerala, the Left Front is set to emerge as the single largest unit, with nine seats, a gain of five from last time. The tally of the ruling Congress, will be reduced to seven from the 13 it won in 2009. However, the BJP may win a seat, either Kasargod or Thiruvananthpuram. Repeating the pattern, in Orissa, the in- cumbent government by the BJD will once again win the maximum number of seats than others. Its tally of 12 will, however, be less than the 14 it won in 2009. The Congress will improve its tally by one and win seven seats out of the total 21 on offer. The BJP will win two seats, compared to nil it won in 2009.
The biggest gainer in these states will be the Jayalalithaaled AIADMK. The party ruling Tamil Nadu will win 27 seats out of the total 39 seats, making a huge gain of 18 seats. The DMK’s tally will be severely reduced to five, 13 seats less than its previous tally. For the BJP, an alliance with the Vijayakanth led DMDK may improve its prospects.
In West Bengal, the ruling Trinamool Congress will win a comfortable majority with 24 out of a total 42 seats. The tally of the Left Front will not be reduced by more than a seat. It won 15 seats in 2009 and could win 14 this time.