It’s time to accept that India, China are not engaged in a cold war
As the economies of both India and China are transforming and upgrading at a faster pace, the two nations see opportunities in each other’s development.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent visit to China has resulted in the attainment of new heights in economic relations between New Delhi and Beijing. During their Beijing meeting both Prime Minister Modi and his Chinese counterpart Li Keqiang reiterated their strong commitment to make all efforts to maintain peace and tranquility in their border region and remain sensitive to each other’s interest.
This process of dialogue must be carried forward to solve the existing political irritants between the two nations. New Delhi has long been upset with Beijing’s approach to its boundary dispute with India, its claims to Arunachal Pradesh, its policy of issuing stapled visas to Indians of this state, its occasional infiltration from across the Line of Actual Control (LAC), its support to Pakistan’s nuclear-missile capability, and its indifference towards India-specific ter- rorist attacks from across India’s border with Pakistan and Pakistan Occupied Kashmir.
New Delhi has also been upset with Beijing’s negativity towards India’s entry into the Nuclear Suppliers Group, the UN Security Council, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation.
Some critics of the SinoIndian dialogue discern China’s Middle Kingdom complex (hegemony) in its planned road and pipeline network from Central Asia to the Pakistani port of Gwadar, the Gwadar-Kashgar economic corridor, the use of PoK in defining the Pakistan-China economic corridor, and China’s moves in the East China Sea, South China Sea and the Indian Ocean. They would suggest India to counter it by joining hands with the United States, along with Japan and Australia.
Knowledgeable sources oppose this cold war mindset and argue that the Sino-Indian scenario has changed drastically over the years. Today China and India cooperate under multilateral frameworks, including in the United Nations, BRICS, G20 and Shanghai Cooperation Organization.
As the Indian economy gathers momentum, the Chinese economy is transforming and upgrading at a faster pace. The two nations see opportunities in each other’s development.
India is among the founding members of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). The two nations have trade not only in goods but also services, tourism, investment and finance. Cooperation between them on railway and industrial parks is taking shape. China’s overseas investment is likely to reach $500 billion over the next five years. India is interested in making use of this opportunity. Over 10 Indian banks have set up 13 branches in China. Indian companies have wide-ranging investment in China, in- cluding software, pharmaceuticals, higher education, iron and steel, chemical industry and clean energy.
The sources say that both nations are economy- focused and are determined to consolidate their ties in this sphere. India has its “Mausam” and “Spice Route” connectivity projects. China’s “belt and road” initiative is not antithetical to it. China is interested in sharing with India its vision of the Maritime Silk Road ( MSR). China needs the MSR following the economic downturn in the West, once crucial to its export led growth. The MSR connects Quanzhou ( Fujian province) with South and Southeast Asia, including India, Maldives and Sri Lanka. Beijing is ready to support funding for the development of marine industry, including ship building, logistical infrastructure and industrial parks in the nations joining this initiative.
Also, China has raised with India the initiative of building a Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar Eco- nomic Corridor ( BCIM). This proposal has received a positive response from Myanmar and Bangladesh. A joint working group for the BCIM has been set up.
Beijing seems to calculate that the United States-led Trans Pacific Partnership ( TPP) initiative seeks to forge a regional free trade agreement in the AsiaPacific region. The TPP includes Japan, Australia, New Zealand, Vietnam, Singapore and Malaysia. The American “Pivot to Asia” is not but a doctrinal invention for concentrating its additional forces and equipment in the Asia-Pacific. Both TPP and “Pivot” projects are part of the USallies’ agenda to contain China.
The sources say New Delhi must bear these new realities in mind and enhance its strategic and cooperative partnership with Beijing to a higher level to achieve a negotiated settlement of the Sino-Indian border dispute.
Forging “strategic trust” is a vital component of the joint statement signed during PM Modi’s parleys with his Chinese counterpart. The clarification of the Line of Actual Control (LAC) is being worked out. New Delhi and Beijing are in agreement that the LAC clarification could be done “without prejudice to individual positions on the boundary question”. This would allay apprehensions, if any, that India would insist on turning the LAC into a permanent border once it was clarified. In the context of the LAC clarification, the minimalist approach would be to have a shared perception of each other’s positions. This would contribute immensely in easing the tensions.
Meanwhile, the border areas have maintained peace and stability on the whole. There have been arrangements, including the Border Defence Cooperation Agreement, to maintain peace along the Sino-Indian border. Today military to military cooperation between China’s People’s Liberation Army and Indian armed forces encompasses exchange of high and medium level visits, availing of training courses in each other’s institutions, conduct of joint exercise, including counter-terrorism training, among others.
The communiqué signed after the Modi-Li talks at the Great Hall of the People is to lead to the establishment of a hotline between the two Army headquarters and additional points along the frontiers to enable local border commanders to hold any crisis- management meetings.
The sources say that the Indian military machine is far more advanced and integrated now than earlier. India is a nuclear weapons state. Beijing is unlikely to use any occasional skirmishes along the LAC or its claims on Arunachal and Aksai Chin to go in for a full-fledged war against India. So New Delhi need not lose sleep over China’s growing defence modernisation. China’s economy is ten times higher than India’s and its defence allocation can be viewed in that context. Jagdish N. Singh is a senior journalist