New uncertainties and a future that is already here
Bill Fisher, a professor at the Institute of Management Development in Lausanne, Switzerland, looks at our high-tech future in his foreword to Abhijit Bhaduri’s new book, The Digital Tsunami. An excerpt.
By Abhijit Bhaduri Rupa Publications Pages: 187 Price: Rs 195
There are few journeys that are as forbidding as those that take us into the unknown. We neither know what to really expect, nor how to respond. This is truly frightening, especially for the modern leadership class that has been honed to sharpness through a collection of analytical approaches and the wisdom of case studies, all of which lead us to the development of a mastery of the uncertain. Alas, the uncertain is of little use in confronting the unknown.
In confronting the uncertain, we are blessed with access to knowledge, numbers and likelihoods that allow us to make judicious, not to say “optimal” choices based on what we know about the past. While the uncertain is different from what we know, that difference lies in degree, and by applying lessons learned from past uncertain experi- IR MO ME ences we appreciably raise the likelihood of making a good choice for the future. With the unknown, however, there is no knowledge, number or likelihood to rely upon. The unknownis unknown. We know not where the future is going, or even if we have the capabilities to get there. There will be new customer expectations, with new players addressing them. There will be new sources of talent, and new rules of the game. All of these are unknown. We cannot predict them or forecast them. Nonetheless, it is in this unknown that the future of most industries is to be found, and as leaders we have to somehow overcome our hesitancy and try to move forward with some degree of grace.
Abhijit Bhaduri’s choice of the metaphor of a “tsunami” is an apt one for thinking about addressing a digital future that is both compelling for its promise and frightening for the unknown qualities associated with this promise. We all know that business models, organisations and leadership styles will be profoundly disturbed by the mindsets we will come to associate with our new digital era, but just how they will change and what we will have to do differently in the future is what is so unknown, and the fear associated with all of this is that by the time we figure out what is required, the waves of change are likely to be speeding across the horizon, upsetting the familiar in its path. If we don’t quickly take action to get out of its way, we too may become victims of the terrible power of changing tastes and mindsets gone viral.
As the science fiction author William Gibson so famously observed: “The future is already here, it’s just not evenly distributed.” When the Robbie Robertson’s singular contributions to popular music have made him one of the most beloved songwriters and guitarists of his time. With songs like “The Weight,” “The Night They Drove Old Dixie Down,” and “Up on Cripple Creek,” he and his partners in The Band fashioned a music that has endured for decades, influencing countless musicians. In this captivating memoir, written over five years of reflection. momentum of change has become so inevitable that its presence is concentrated, then the unknown suddenly becomes clear, and those who are prepared to adjust quickly and coherently are in the best position for survival. So it is with most big changes, and digital transformation may be the biggest big change of all.
As Abhijit has so correctly perceived, “The digital world is not about technology. It is about discovering the uniqueness of the human being and technology just becomes an enabler.” But what an “enabler”! The all-pervasiveness of digital “enablers” in a soonto-be-here society, that is connected through the Internet of Everything morphing into the Internet of Customer Experiences, is bound to profoundly alter the mindsets of our cus- tomers, our value-ecosystem partners, our employees and ultimately ourselves. For “us”, this means what Abhijit has called “design principles of being digital”. We, as a team, as an organisation, need to develop our work habits so that we are: 1. Borderless thinkers 2. Faster 3. Data-driven and (yet) individualised
4. Talent-centric and obsessed with hiring the right talent.
We can see this all around us. This foreword was written (and rewritten) on three continents (Asia, Europe and North America) over the period of just a few weeks — borders are increasingly inconsequential; you’ve got to be where you’ve got to be. “Fast” is the new cadence of modern life; it is what I as a customer expect in any engagement that I’m a part of. After all, isn’t that what I get normally at home, on the Internet, every day? And, without a doubt, the genomic revolution, unfolding in parallel with the digital revolution, will not only add more data to our lives, but will enable individualised therapeutic responses to that data at the same time. All of this is driving a revolution of expectations; a revolution of mindset, all around us; and the right talent is the one key asset required at the very centre of what will make it work.
But is it reasonable to expect that we will change our offerings, our organisations, our teamwork and yet not ourselves? Of course not! For all of us, no matter what our role or what our industry, the next managerial frontier is “me”! We too must change profoundly if we wish to keep up with the tsunami waves that are sweeping everything aside. For me, this is the real thin point of the wedge. What are the leadership characteristics that our organisations require (deserve) if we are to move into a continually changing and unknown future that is being fashioned and refashioned by digital experiences? And, of course, how to encourage today’s leaders to make a change on becoming tomorrow’s leader as well? As Abhijit has so accurately perceived, time is short and the consequences are real: “A transformation has two characteristics — all the variables change radically, the difference between the former and latter scenarios is radical and the pace of shift is so rapid that it is hard to comprehend the impact of the shift.” That is what this book is ultimately all about. And, of course, we need to make such changes at a time when “the new rule is that there are no rules”.
One cannot engage with this book without appreciating the need for wide-ranging, comprehensive changes in the way we think about both the practice and the practitioners of the leadership of modern, complex, transnational organisations. We need to rethink competencies, choices and boundaries. Abhijit points out that there are profound and fundamental differences across the “pyramid of skills” that we might choose to pursue and possess. “Commodity” skills are most definitely not “marketable” skills, and they may not be as recognisable nor as valuable as “niche” skills. He also points out that in an age of specialisation, “the digital world needs people who can navigate the entire ecosystem” and this, in turn, requires a very different sensitivity to the skills of others than what has typically been valued in our traditional mono-talent-centric talent markets.
Abhijit Bhaduri’s choice of the metaphor of a “tsunami” is an apt one for thinking about addressing a digital future that is both compelling for its promise and frightening for the unknown qualities associated with this promise.
Excerpted from the foreword to The Digital Tsunami, with the publisher’s permission