Ram Madhav predicts BJP-led government in AP in 2019

BJP may have a pre or post-poll alliance with either Jagan or Pawan Kalyan.

Lok Sabha Speaker Sumitra Mahajan is likely to accept the resignations of five YSR Congress MPs when they appear before her for personal verification in New Delhi on Tuesday. In that scenario, the Election Commission is expected to announce byelections to fill the vacancies as the term of the current Lok Sabha is valid for more than a year, till 2 June 2019.

The five MPs—Mekapati Rajamohan Reddy (Nellore), Y.V. Subba Reddy (Ongole), Y.S. Avinash Reddy (Kadapa), P.V. Mithun Reddy (Rajampet) and V. Varaprasada Rao (TirupatiSC)—quit their seats on 6 April in protest against the denial of special category status to Andhra Pradesh.

YSR Congress leader Y.S. Jagan Mohan Reddy had been touring the state for the last seven months seeking special status to Andhra and he had told his MPs to be ready to quit their seats for the cause. The ruling TDP pulled out of the BJP led NDA government at the Centre for the same cause and there has been a race of sorts between the two parties on who is more committed to the special status cause.

Initially, it was thought that there won’t be any byelections to the five seats as the resignations given by the MPs might not be accepted before the monsoon session of Parliament scheduled in July-August. Mithun Reddy told this newspaper over the phone on Saturday that the party was committed to ensure that the MPs’ resignations were accepted at any cost on 29 May. “What is the purpose of resigning when our resignations were not accepted? Our leader ( Jagan) is keen on accepting our resignations and going for byelections over the same issue,” the MP said. Jagan is particular about forcing byelections to the LS seats held by his MPs as the present political conditions are favourable to his party. Of the five seats, Jagan is confident of winning back at least Kadapa and Rajampet from his home district and his sitting MPs are strong enough to win Nellore and Ongole seats. He has to work hard to win Tirupati (SC) seat.

But the party leaders are confident that all the five MPs would be re-elected as they have sacrifised their seats for the cause of special status to Andhra, as per the promises made to it at the time of bifurcation of the combined state four years ago. “There is a strong sentiment among the people for special status and we have no doubt regarding the re-election of our MPs,” said YSR Congress spokesman A. Rambabu. At the same time, AP CM and TDP president Chandrababu Naidu is leaving no stones unturned to wrest at least a few seats from Jagan, if bypolls were to be held. The CM told his party leaders in a recent meeting that winning at least three out of the five LS seats was crucial to the TDP as the next general elections are just a year away. The electoral prospects of these two parties depend on the stand of the other marginal forces like Congress, the Left and Pawan Kalyan’s Jana Sena. BJP general secretary Ram Madhav on Saturday predicted a BJP-led government in Andhra Pradesh after the 2019 elections. The AP Assembly along with the Lok Sabha is expected to go to polls in April-May next year.

Madhav was addressing a party meeting at Guntur in Andhra on the occasion of the completion of four years of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government at the Centre. This was the biggest ever gathering of the BJP after it parted ways with the ruling Telugu Desam Party in the state. By forecasting a BJPled government, Ram Madhav, who is also in charge of party affairs in Andhra, suggested a pre-poll or post-poll alliance with other parties, most probably, Jagan’s YSR Congress or Pawan Kalyan’s Jana Sena. As CM and TDP chief, Chandrababu Naidu is expected to move closer to Congress and the Left and the BJP might join hands with other players.

Ram Madhav lashed out at Naidu and his TDP government for being steeped in various corruption scams including alleged misdeeds at Tirumala Tirupati Devasthanams (TTD). “We have heard of corruption in Polavaram irrigation project and development of the capital city. Now they ( TDP) are not leaving the God’s funds at TTD,” said Ram Madhav, evoking loud applause from the crowds. The fourth anniversary celebrations of the Modi government were also utilised to install newly appointed Andhra BJP president Kanna Lakshminarayana in office. Kanna, a former Congress veteran, joined the BJP four years ago and was made the party’s unit chief in AP, keeping in view his Kapu background, a community that is numerically strong in six out of 13 districts of AP.

But Madhav said that the appointment of Kanna had nothing to do with his caste background and that he was a senior leader with more experience than Chandrababu Naidu and deserved a leadership role in Andhra. The BJP general secretary cautioned his party leaders in AP to be united and defeat the caste politics of TDP.

Ram Madhav told the BJP activists and cadre not to be disheartened with the developments in Karnataka where a JDS-Congress government came to power. “In Karnataka, BJP almost won the state though we fell short of just eight seats. We treat it as our victory and the opening of doors to the BJP in the South India. The same will happen in Andhra in next year’s elections,” he said.

He called upon the BJP leaders to work hard and win enough number of Assembly and Lok Sabha seats so as to compete with the ruling TDP and opposition YSR Congress. Only then, the BJP would be in a position to not only join but also lead a coalition government in the state. The BJP general secretary told the cadre that he can guarantee that PM Modi would come back to power after 2019.

Ram Madhav said: “We have this guarantee as three persons are tirelessly working for BJP’s victory in the next elections—one is PM Modi, another is Amit Shah and the third one is Rahul Gndhi.” The Jammu and Kashmir Education Department is rattled by the increase in the dropout rate of girl students in the Kashmir valley and is studying the likely causes behind this worrying development. A senior official of the Education Department told this reporter that in many cases they have found that parental intervention is stopping girls from going to schools and colleges, especially in South Kashmir. The official further said that they have found that dozens of girls in Shopian and Pulwama discontinued schools and colleges after some of their family members were hit by pellets. “In some cases we found that the worried parents were not allowing the girl students to attend educational institutions,” the official said, requesting not to be quoted.

Although girls have been outshining boys in different examinations held in the Kashmir valley, there has been a quantum increase in the dropout rate among the female students in 2016-2017. Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Mehbooba Mufti has said that she is serious about arresting this trend.

The Education Department has been collecting data and some officers told this reporter that they were looking for ways and means to motivate girl students to resume school/ college, especially girl students in South Kashmir. “The average dropout rate is 10.5% at primary school level but the dropout rate of girl students has shot up to 11.3%,” an officer of the Education Department told this reporter. J&K Education Minister Chowdhary Zulfikar Ali recently held a high level meeting of his officers and asked them to reverse the trend.

The current academic year in the Kashmir valley has seen many disruptions due to curfews and strikes. In many educational institutions of South Kashmir, only two weeks of regular classes could be held in the past few months. “Even on normal days we are scared to go to school and colleges. Our parents are more concerned about our safety than our education,” said Saima Bhat, a final year student in Government Degree College, Shopian. The Ramzan ceasefire has brought fresh hope among the state education department officials that they may be able to arrest the increasing dropout rate.