Sangh-bjp groping with election agenda
between us
With less than three months left for the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh appear to be unclear regarding their main poll plank. The recent statement made by RSS general secretary, Bhaiyaji Joshi, that the Ram temple in Ayodhya would be built by 2025, is indicative of the fact that the Sangh wants to keep the issue hanging, so that it can extract benefit from the same even during the next elections. On the other hand, the BJP has not spelt out its strategy, and is looking forward to making the contest a presidential one, preferably between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Congress president Rahul Gandhi. However, with regional satraps unwilling to accept Rahul’s leadership, the narrative, to present the showdown as a fight of ideologies—nehru’s concept of India versus the RSS vision of an Akhand Hindu-driven Bharat—seems to be making little headway.
The nervousness of the BJP stems from the fact that the proposed Mahagathbandhan has not identified its leader, making it difficult to fathom who would be the main challenger to Modi. It effectively means that the post-poll arrangements would determine the Opposition choice for the Prime Minister, and it is least likely that Rahul would be the ultimate face. There is a tacit understanding amongst various parties that the sole objective should be to displace BJP. The problem facing the BJP, which had reached its highest ever Lok Sabha tally in 2014, is that it has failed to deepen its footprint for it to retain the number of seats. The ultimate calculations would be based on the final tally that the party receives, following the declaration of results. The BJP’S staunchest supporters also concede that it would be virtually impossible to replicate the last Lok Sabha performance, since at that time there was a clear anti-wave against the Congress and its allies. Although Modi was able to cash in on this mood, yet the outcome was more of a vote against the Congress, rather than one in favour of the BJP.
Last week’s BJP rally provided sufficient evidence that there was an overall realisation in the Sangh that the performance of the NDA government was definitely inadequate to carry forth the coalition to another term. Therefore, an emotional quotient has been reintroduced, with Amit Shah reminding the cadres of the Third Battle of Panipat; the consequences which were borne by the Hindus for centuries. The entire BJP propaganda on the social networks also revolves around the theme of saving Hindus from being relegated to second class citizens in their very own country. This is in sharp contrast to showcasing the many proclaimed achievements of the Modi government. The purpose is to unleash passion arousing issues to be in the forefront. The high profile Ardh Kumbh celebrations in Prayagraj (Allahabad) were aimed at enrapturing the heart and minds of devotees, in the hope that they would be swayed by the fervour of religious dimensions, consequently overlooking the promises made by the current regime.
The BJP and the Sangh, who often are not on the same page, however concur on ridiculing the Opposition parties for not projecting any challenger to Modi. What they seem to forget is that the decision in Indian elections has rarely been made on a positive vote for the ruling dispensation. In other words, the change of governments has been brought about by negative voting, if one has to go by the experience of the past four decades, with the exception of 1984 and 2009. The 2009 verdict was a vote for Manmohan Singh, who Lal Krishna Advani ridiculed as a “Nikamma” (Useless) Prime Minister, which caused the middle classes, in that particular election, to shift from the BJP to the Congress. In 1984, the huge mandate received by Rajiv Gandhi was actually the nation paying tribute to Indira Gandhi, his mother. Some may argue that 1999 polls were also a positive vote for Atal Bihari Vajpayee, but the outcome did indicate that people were unhappy with the Congress, for toppling an elected government by a single vote during the no-confidence motion, which necessitated a fresh poll.
The forthcoming elections can only be different if one takes into account Modi’s larger than life image. After a long time, India has had a strong Prime Minister, who has, during the four and half years of his tenure, virtually controlled the political discourse. As is well known, he remains immensely popular, though the BJP has been slipping from its firm footing which occurred during the recent elections in the three Hindi heartland states. The Modi magic had apparently not worked, though the BJP tried to present it as a defeat of its three otherwise strong regional leaders.
It also is a fact that Modi is an extremely combative leader who would not readily loosen the grip of his reins. It is another matter that unlike last time, he has to face latent dissent within his own party and the larger organisation as well. There have been voices of revolt, though they are not loud enough to attract much attention. However, they do spell that all is not well within the Sangh Parivar. There has to be a swift realisation if remedial steps have to be taken. As reiterated, the 2019 elections will be a battle between the Modi of 2014 and the Modi of 2019, and not the Sangh versus the combined Opposition. Between us.