COVID FIGHTING STRATEGY IN PLACE, INDIA PREPARED TO LIFT LOCKDOWN
cases, is testing 0.438 per 1,000 people. India, as on 13 May, is seventh when it comes to doing Covid-19 tests across the world. ‘POSITIVITY RATE’
Advisers to the government have pointed to the positivity rate of Covid-19 in India while advocating the lifting of the lockdown.
Doctors and epidemiologists believe that the positivity rate, which means the number of patients testing positive per 100 samples, is a better indicator to ascertain the spread of diseases in the community. A higher positivity rates indicates a faster spread of the infection.
India, which has now tested almost 2 million people, has a positivity rate of 3.8%. In the middle of April, the positivity rate in India stood at 4.5%.
An official with the Health Ministry, who is not authorised to speak to the media, said: “We are expecting the positive cases to rise once the lockdown is lifted. However, the numbers, going by the positivity rates that we have witnessed so far, will be inside the acceptable limit. We have already carried out almost 20 lakh tests to assume things safely. The key is to understand that as the number of tests increase, so will the positive cases in absolute numbers. If every 130 crore Indian is tested, going by the current positivity rate, we will get roughly 40 lakh Covid-19 cases, which is a huge number if you do not see in the context of things.”
However, a few states and union territories have reported a higher positivity rate, with Delhi, Chandigarh
and Maharashtra having almost double the positivity rate than the national rate. For example, the positivity rate in Delhi is about 7.38%, while in Maharashtra and Chandigarh, it is over 8%.
Comparing India to other countries where the virus has hit the hardest, India stands at a far better place when it comes to the extent of the spread of the infection in the community.
The United Kingdom, which has about 226,000 confirmed Covid-19 cases as on 13 May, has one of the highest test positivity rates in the world. One out of every 3.5 persons, being tested for Covid-19 in the UK, is turning out to be positive.
The United States, which till May has reported 1,476,489 positive cases, has a positivity rate of 15%. Italy, one of the other hardest hit countries, has also reported a positivity rate of about 15%.
In India, the MOHFW, with an aim to monitor the prevalence of Covid-19 infection at the district level, is also launching a population-based sero-survey (testing of blood serum) across all the districts of the country.
The sero-survey will be conducted on population groups categorised into high-risk and low-risk groups. In this survey, 100 samples of highrisk groups, which include the health workers, will be collected every week from each district and 50 samples each from low-risk groups, which include outpatient attendees and pregnant women, will be collected every week from each district.
The MOHFW will collect 400 samples of healthcare workers, 200 samples each of outpatient attendees and pregnant women per month.
This exercise will be conducted in addition to the regular testing for Covid-19 being done by the ICMR and the National Centre for Disease
Control, in collaboration with key stakeholders and state health departments.
As on 10 May, India has 7,740 dedicated Covid-19 facilities that include Covid-19 dedicated hospitals, dedicated Covid health centres and dedicated Covid care centres in the 483 districts across the country.
India now also has 656,769 isolation beds, 305,567 beds for confirmed cases, 351,204 beds for suspected cases, 99,492 oxygen supported beds, 1,696 facilities with oxygen manifold and 34,076 ICU beds.
India, which did not manufacture a single PPE kit and N95 mask, which are worn by healthcare workers handling Covid-19 patients or suspects for their protection when the country was under lockdown, is now manufacturing 3 lakh PPE kits every day and around 2 lakh N95 masks today.
Apart from hospitals, the government has also turned railway coaches into quarantine/isolation coaches to house Covid-19 patients. As part of the plan, one railway coach will have 16 beds for isolation. A total of 20,000 coaches, which can accommodate up to 3.2 lakh beds for isolation/quarantine needs are being readied in four phases, with more than 70% of them already converted into isolation centres. These mobile quarantine centres can be taken to any place in case of a mass spread so that they can augment the existing medical infrastructure in that state.