The Sunday Guardian

PM MODI’S OPPONENTS PLAN AN IDES OF AUGUST SURPRISE

- MADHAV NALAPAT NEW DELHI Faith in the time of the virus

Fiscal action in the sphere of tax rebates and lowering of rates along with a massive expansion of money into the productive system so as to stimulate demand are needed since the day before yesterday.

Rather than the “Ides of March”, future historians in India may write about the “Ides of August”, should the plans now under preparatio­n of influentia­l groups (each working towards the same objective) be ready by their intended launch date, 15 August 2020.

The plan of action is to begin around that day and move into higher and higher gear thereafter. The calculatio­n of these groups (who are in regular informal coordinati­on with each other) is that by 15 August, the economic situation facing hundreds of millions of citizens in the country will have become so dire—indeed hopeless—that the tinder thus created would be sufficient to ensure that manifestat­ions of discontent get sparked and spread across urban areas. This is expected to have an immediate impact on the investment climate in India, which is becoming a country of interest especially for units seeking to relocate from China. It is a given that the Ministry of Finance has been conservati­ve and still moored to the past from the time the Narendra Modi government was sworn in on 26 May 2014. Even after the immense tensions in the economy caused by Demo 2016, the rollout of GST as initially structured, and now the Great Indian Lockdown, the ameliorati­ve responses of both the Ministry of Finance and the Reserve Bank of India have exhibited much the same caution that the US

Federal Reserve Board and the Treasury Department showed in abundance during the years preceding the Great Depression of the 1930s. Because of such a timid stand, unemployme­nt in the US during the 1930s reached the previously unimaginab­le figure of 24%. But President Donald J. Trump cajoled both the Federal Reserve Board as well as the Department of

A woman wearing a protective mask ties a cotton thread around a banyan tree on the occasion of “Vat Savitri festival” after some restrictio­ns were lifted during an extended nationwide lockdown to slow the spread of coronaviru­s, in Ahmedabad on Friday. the Treasury into giving out trillions of dollars in doles, a scale of relief several times more than ever witnessed during past crises, accompanie­d by shock among convention­al monetarist­s and economists. Because of Trump’s measures, the US economy has started to rebound during the last month, with unemployme­nt figures

 ??  ??

Newspapers in English

Newspapers from India