As China lashes out, everyone has to be concerned: Gordon Chang
according to him “is that America now has a President who is pushing back hard.”
So what are the chances of this “war” escalating into a conflict may be in the South China Sea?
“In this confrontation, anything can happen. There could be World War III, but far more likely is a long struggle,” he said.
He believes that “the present is an especially risky time” because “too often in the past, American leaders and others warned the Chinese but never carried through. In short, the world taught China to ignore what we said. That emboldened the worst elements in Beijing by showing everybody else that aggression worked. Now, as a result, Chinese leaders think they can do whatever they want. The world, however, will at one point have to stand firm. That point will be extraordinarily dangerous.”
But what about the situation in China? Is there any unease in China about the pandemic and the crisis it has unleashed on the world? Any soul-searching? Any criticism of the government’s policy?
To which Chang replied,
“We know not everyone in Beijing endorses its provocative approach to the world, but no senior leader expresses disagreement in public. That’s a sign Xi Jinping remains strong.”
And how much of this current crisis has to do with Xi Jinping personally and his personality? And is he secure “for life” as President? “Xi is going for broke, but his China is not strong enough to stand against all the adversaries he is creating. At some point—and I think that point could come within a year, especially if President Trump wins re-election—the Chinese leader will create a confrontation that China will lose. Xi Jinping is arrogant, and he overestimates his ability to intimidate others,” said Chang.
He went on to add, “How can the world impose costs on China? Xi is taking China back to a state-dominated, closed system, returning China to totalitarianism. This has occurred several times in Chinese history, and it has never worked out well for the country. Unfortunately for China, this is occurring in a global downturn and a period of de-globalization. China’s system is unsustainable, needing constant financial input from the outside. Other countries can cut the flow of money and technology to the modern Chinese state. Beijing is particularly vulnerable because the more we learn about its role in spreading coronavirus the more likely that countries will cut China off from what it needs. China prospered in a period of globalization and general prosperity. It is not clear it can navigate an era of the opposite: the erection of political barriers and recession.”