RAHUL’S PRESTIGE AT STAKE, CONGRESS KEEN TO WIN KERALA Jagan retains hold over gram panchayats, Naidu disputes the numbers
Sonia Gandhi and Priyanka Vadra are set to campaign in the southern state.
Three of the four phases of gram panchayat elections in Andhra Pradesh have so far been peaceful and smooth, while the last and final phase of polls is slated to be held on 21 February, Sunday. The salient feature of the elections till now is that the ruling YSR Congress has almost retained its base by winning three fourths of villages, the same numbers it bagged in 2019 Assembly polls.
Officially, the party claimed that it has won around 80% of the sarpanch and ward member posts for which elections were held so far, while main opposition TDP disputed the figure and claimed that it had won close to 40 per cent of the seats. The problem is that the elections to around 13,000 gram panchayats are being held on a non-political party basis. As the elections are held not on the symbols of political parties, but on free ones reserved for independents, it is difficult to exactly verify the political affiliations of the winners in every village. But, broadly, the elections are held like general elections as the main parties fielded their candidates and provided them with sufficient funds for electioneering too.
Usually, the gram panchayat elections don’t assume significance as mostly the ruling party sweeps them. But, the situation in AP is different as former chief minister N. Chandrababu Naidu’s TDP turned on heat on the polls, terming them as a sort of referendum on the two-year rule of Chief Minister Y.S. Jagan Mohan Reddy as close to 2.5 crore voters exercised their vote.
Some of Jagan’s decisions including shifting the executive capital to Visakhapatnam from Amaravati and scrapping most of Naidu regime’s policies have become major issues in the elections which are supposed to be held on purely local matters. The run-up to these elections too has witnessed bouts of legal battles between the government and the State Election Commission which holds the polls.
State Election Commissioner (SEC) N Ramesh Kumar, a retired IAS officer, has knocked the doors of the High Court and Supreme Court so as to hold the polls. Initially, the Jagan government has resisted the conduct of the polls under the supervision of Ramesh Kumar, who was appointed to the post by the Naidu regime and is to retire by the end of March 2021.
However, CM Jagan has decided to cooperate with the SEC after the SC made it clear that elections to the local bodies cannot be further postponed. The four phases of gram panchayat polls on February 9, 13, 17 and 21 in AP have generated enough heat and dust as some ministers directly attacked the SEC terming it playing in the hands of TDP. The SEC, in turn, issued gag orders on those ministers.
Money flowed like water in these elections as some the candidates in some districts have reportedly spent more than Rs 10 crore to win a sarpanch post of a gram panchayat. The political clout behind the post and the stakes of both the ruling and opposition parties in the polls have promoted this much spending in the village level elections.
The ruling YSR Congress tried its best to ensure a large number of gram panchayats unanimously elected their sarpanch and ward members, but TDP claimed it as suppression of freedom to its candidates to contest the polls. The SEC sent special officers to verify if the unanimous elections were genuine. Still about five to eight per cent of gram panchayats opted for a unanimous route.
A significant outcome of these polls is that in Opposition Leader Chandrababu Naidu’s Kuppam Assembly seat, more number of YSR Congress candidates won, putting a question mark over the TDP supremo’s prospects in the next Assembly elections in 2024. Already, some ministers of Jagan government say that Naidu has to shift to a safer constituency next time.
At the same, TDP too gave tough fight to some of the ministers as the Opposition party’s candidates have won a majority of gram panchayats and ward member posts. TDP improved its presence in the central coastal districts where there is impact of farmers’ agitation to retain Amaravati as the capital, while YSR Congress consolidated its position in Rayalaseema and north-coastal districts.
After securing comfortable margins in the gram panchayat elections, now YSR Congress is ready to face other sets of local polls–to zilla parishads and municipalities – as proposed by SEC Ramesh Kumar. Till recently, the ruling party was reluctant to face these polls during the tenure of Ramesh Kumar, but now the situation has changed.
With Rahul Gandhi’s prestige at stake in Kerala, the Congress will focus on the Ldf-ruled southern state. Apart from this, the grand old party will also be focused on Tamil Nadu and Assam. These are the three states where Assembly polls are to be held along with West Bengal and Puducherry in the next couple of months.
Congress interim president Sonia Gandhi and AICC general secretary Priyanka Vadra will campaign in these three states. According to sources, the Congress will give the entire campaigning responsibility to the Left parties in West Bengal so as not to give any wrong message in Kerala. Moreover, the Congress is not getting encouraging reports from Puducherry. In fact, there is all possibility that Puducherry will go to polls under President’s Rule. A final picture on the fate of the Congress government in this state would be clear by Monday. Therefore, Congress’ strategy is to win Kerala anyhow. The party is also ready to accept all conditions of its ally DMK in Tamil Nadu so that “victory of its alliance in TN could be ensured”.
Sonia Gandhi and Priyanka Vadra will be holding one rally each in both these states. Sonia Gandhi’s movement may be restricted due to health reasons. But Priyanka Vadra has decided to spend a considerable amount of time campaigning in these states. Priyanka Vadra is presently touring UP districts for farmers’ issues. But the final strategy for UP will be in place after the five state elections.
The party’s poll managers believe that if the Congress does not win Kerala, it will be a rude setback for Rahul Gandhi, as he has to take over the reins of the organisation in June. There will be a risk of his leadership being questioned if poll results happen to be unfavourable. The Group of 23 has already raised similar questions earlier. The party might get demoralized in the elections which will follow five state polls. UP, Punjab and Uttarakhand will be among the states which will be going to polls February-march next year. The series of Assembly polls will keep taking place leading to general elections of 2024. Congress-ruled Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan will also go to polls in 2023. If the Congress government falls in Puducherry, then only Punjab, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan will be the only states in its kitty.
Rahul Gandhi may not be the president of the Congress, but it is he who is running the party. His strategy has been weak, with organizational matters going almost out of hand. Loss of government in MP was the outcome of such a weak hold. Jyotiraditya Scindia had to leave the party due to what was seen as a lackadaisical attitude of Rahul Gandhi.
What is more worrying is that Rahul Gandhi continues to be ignorant of such developments in states such as Rajasthan. Groupism in
Congress came to the fore when Rahul Gandhi visited the state.
Pramod Tyagi, a leader from UP, gave a statement in favour of former Dy CM Sachin Pilot. Pramod Tyagi is known as Pramod Krishnam who claims himself to be close to Priyanka Vadra. He gave the media an opportunity to highlight factionalism in the Rajasthan Congress. Pilot also held a public meeting in what was seen as a show of strength by him. Around 16 MLAS attended the programme. However, it is not going to impact the government in any way, because the BJP is itself mired in group fighting.
If Rahul Gandhi continues to be oblivious to these developments, then the situation might go out of control. The organizational decisions are taken only in election year due to infighting, which is another reason why Congress fails to strengthen its position. Assam, Kerala and TN are examples of that. The situation is much worse in Hindi heartland states.
The strategists as of now are focused on Kerala, going by the ground report which has given anxious moments to the leadership. Report says that it is not easy for the Congress-led front to get back to power there, even while Rahul Gandhi is an MP from Kerala.
AICC general secretary K.C. Venugopal, who happens to be from Kerala, is in Team Rahul. Two more stalwarts are also from Kerala. Apart from rallies of Sonia Gandhi and Priyanka Vadra, Venugopal and other big leaders will be campaigning massively.
Rajasthan Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot has already been assigned the electoral task in Kerala. Then comes Tamil Nadu where Congress will not create any pressure on DMK for seat sharing. Sonia Gandhi will be campaigning in TN. Strategists are of the view that electoral success in southern states will give strength to Rahul Gandhi at a time when he is expected to take over the top party post.
The party’s poll managers believe that if the Congress does not win Kerala, it will be a rude setback for Rahul Gandhi, as he has to take over the reins of the organisation in June.