The Modi factor for 2024 and beyond
Narendra Modi will remain a force to reckon with for the 2024 elections. No opposition leader can match his persona.
There is a feeling in some quarters that Narendra Modi will hang his chappals and jacket and will not contest 2024, as India has tired him. It is far from the truth and wrong even to assume that by any stretch of imagination. India Today rated Modi’s popularity on 18 June at 62%. Of course, one has to really see what type of a sample was used to come to that figure of popularity percentage but even then it is an undisputed fact that Modi still remains the most social media savvy leader in the world and he works more diligently on it rather than relying on taking the print or TV channel media on his persona. He is perhaps the only world leader who has never addressed the news media or granted even a select gathering of editors to meet him formally. However, he has addressed the nation regularly enunciating his policies, shared his thoughts every month and spoken to children and students of all age. The only times he has allowed to be in front of the media is while addressing a joint communique in the presence of his counterpart abroad, which invariably is attended by the world press. Modi has also managed to restrain his party colleagues from over exposure to the press and his Cabinet colleagues have followed his directives accordingly. It is interesting that during the Covid pandemic all briefing has been done by either the experts or Secretaries and rarely by the Minister of Health, except on some occasions. Similarly, his interlocutors on security, foreign policy, and international issues both internationally or domestically are his trusted experts where some time one wonders as to how a person chosen on some occasion may not have been the best person for that occasion. His handling of military diplomacy has been equally emphatic and has broken the ice to ensure that it is left in the hands of military experts with the accommodation of Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) representative in attendance. Hence, Modi is a different kettle of fish and should never be underestimated in his way of functioning or the different contours of leadership that he emanates.
Having stated the above, Modi will remain a force to reckon with for the 2024 elections. No opposition leader can match his persona which only Nehru had acquired during his lifetime and he escaped universal rejection because he died in 1964 and thus gained further sympathy for his party and Mrs Indira Gandhi, which lasted long enough for the Congress to survive till 1997 in full force—a total domination of Indian politics for nearly 50 years.
Therefore, Modi will lead the election to put BJP to power in 2024, and then the “Sangh” will reassess his leadership for continuity by taking into consideration any policy decision which may be seen to make him to become a political liability. That may lead to his being eased out as it has happened to his mentors, when he turns 75, conforming to Modi’s own rule of the exit age for all politicians from holding public office—a safe action without losing the apparent momentum. The BJP, which is the political arm of the RSS, is a cadre based party whose membership is well over 6 crores and increasing every day. This effectively means a vote bank of 30 crores nationally uncontested.
Being a cadre based political entity it means the party can take measures for any internal cleansing process, throw up alternative leadership and strategize political cohesiveness in religion, culture, ethnicity, minorities and the marginalised societies—something which Congress or the Opposition could not do or is incapable of doing even today. Hence, you have to accept BJP till 2029 for certain. Beyond that there is a possibility of Centre-state relations to become more accountable, which will have to allow meritocracy and reforms to take place in education, security and economic affairs to make the country more human/people centric.
There will be no change from BJP to remain a dominant force based on the ancient Hindu way of living and philosophy which will certainly look like a presidential form of government still ensconced in a Parliamentary system. The exit of soft power capability through the migration of the brain-drain, which has started since 2019 will be arrested post 2029. India is poised to become a major economic power post 2033 when there will occur a major change to shift to “govern to administer” in the real sense through Modi has already been chanting the slogan “maximum governance, minimum government” ever since 2014, after taking power. He has initiated lateral entry to the civil services, in a truncated way—a move which has been thoroughly disliked by the civil services. However, the trickle of this lateral entry will make major inputs in every government organisation in the remaining three-year period of the second term of his Prime Ministership. This will allow fresh and critical thinking in administration. Diaspora will play a major economic and influencing role in Modi’s foreign policy making and even allow them to retire and migrate back to India to enjoy their “dollars” earned abroad. The Indian Armed Forces will be more educated. Domain experts (the present civil servants) by and large will be only in support role and not policy influencing role.
China on the other hand will face similar situation as a nation state like faced by the erstwhile Soviet Union. There will be a major polarisation between the PLA and the CCP as there is no representation of the PLA on the high table of seven members led by Xi Jinping. Modi understands the winds of change that are bound to sweep over the political leadership in China and the inevitable fate that will befall on the Chinese Leadership led by Xi.
It is also likely that Modi will bring about a tectonic shift in India depending on retired personnel above the age of 60 years from all sources, corporate and private sector included. He appears to be keen to bring about a transformation by inducting the young and the energetic who will be more accountable and be replaceable by a hire and fire policy. The latest example is the appointment made on 18 June 2021 of Ashish Chandorkar in the post of a Counsellor in the Permanent Mission of India with the WTO in Geneva. Definitely, there will be hardly any place for anyone to be at the helm of affairs of a section, or division in any policy making area after the age of 70 years in the post 2024 period if he can help it.
One cannot but end in a lighter vein to speculate that the 34 million population of the Indian capital may get flooded with a plethora of unemployed personnel who have considered themselves to be indispensable in policy making so far. Can they adjust to live the remaining part of their life happily, content in what they have got and stop thinking as to what way the country will be administered, ruled and managed? Can they be only observers and not act as a catalyst for change? Will they be content by thinking that they have played their innings and should be happy that they have had a very good life as compared to millions others not only in the country but globally? If Modi is really interested in this revolutionary change, then he has to refine his policy making architecture and will require a transformational leadership on his part. He certainly deserves all the luck and good wishes from every Indian who thinks well of India. Gautam Sen is Adjunct Professor, NIAS; Distinguished Visiting Fellow, CLAWS; Visiting Professor, PPF.