President Yoon Seok-yeol will be good for India-korea ties
Under pressure from China, South Korea was reluctant to join the Quad and the Indo-pacific construct. This is expected to change under Yoon’s presidency.
South Korea’s transformation from a poor, authoritarian country ravaged by civil war to a democratic, developed one has brought it to the international stage in a very short span of time. Today it is a major stakeholder in the new security and economic architecture of the Indo-pacific region. South Korea has been getting closer to India for some time now. The victory of Yoon Seok-yeol of the People’s Power Party (PPP) in the 9 March elections will further boost these flourishing ties.
Under the outgoing administration of President Moon Jae-in, South Korea was focused on developing closer ties with North Korea. This narrow policy seriously affected South Korea’s role in the global community. The Us-south Korean alliance, which plays a crucial role in the regional security architecture, was also significantly damaged by this constricted approach. While President Moon was prepared to go to any extent to accommodate North Korea, the United States insisted on confronting it over its nuclear program and human rights violations. Despite all the best efforts by the Moon administration, peace initiatives with North Korea failed to bring any tangible results. A new administration led by Yoon Seok-yeol is expected to course correct its policy on North Korea.
Under a new administration, dialogue with North Korea will be restricted and will be aimed to achieve the specific goal of complete denuclearization. The last administration’s comprehensive approach of engaging North Korea on multiple fronts is expected to be abandoned. South Korea’s policy alignment with the US on North Korea, which was distorted during the Moon administration, is expected to be restored.
Apart from the North Korean issue, the Us-korea partnership was also damaged on another front. Under President Moon Jae-in, South Korea failed to maintain its strategic ambiguity approach towards China. It was perceived to be tilting toward China and distancing itself from its long-time strategic partner, the United States.
During the Moon administration, South Korea embraced its “new southern policy” by extending its reach into the regional neighbourhoods in Southeast and South Asia, but it failed to achieve expected results due to the administration’s timidity. Moon officials remained silent in the face of violations of liberal democratic norms and human rights by these neighbours. As a result, many regional countries initially attracted to South Korea moved away. South Korea under Yoon Seok-yeol is expected to bring about a fundamental policy shift away from this timid approach towards human rights violations and adherence to democratic values on the region.
The previous administration also failed to take advantage of South Korea’s worldwide diplomatic assets to increase its profile in the region. Mostly the diplomatic staff was used to promote economic and business deals. Yoon Seok-yeol’s call for clarity and boldness in its foreign policy approach is expected to bring change in Korea’s status as a regional powerhouse. South Korea will no longer be confined to the Korean peninsula and will try to reach out far from its traditional area of engagement and influence. This is sure to bring new opportunities for India.
However, the new European war has added a new element in regional politics. This war is expected to further intensify the ongoing power struggle between the US and China. This poses a serious challenge to both South Korean and Indian security interests in the region as both countries have a robust security partnership with the US, but also have enormous economic and business ties with China.
Under pressure from China, South Korea was reluctant to join Us-led initiatives such as the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue and the Indo-pacific construct. This is expected to change under Yoon’s presidency. South Korea is now expected to adopt a bolder approach towards China and may refuse to bow down to Chinese economic blackmailing, as was the case during earlier crisis with China.
In 2016, when South Korea decided to deploy the Us-manufactured Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (THAAD) system to defend against North Korean missiles, China reacted angrily with economic retaliation. Unable to face retaliation and protect its security interests, South Korea succumbed to Chinese demands. To placate China, it declared the “three nos’” policy: no to additional THAAD deployments, no to participation in a US missile defence network, and no to establishment of a trilateral military alliance with the United States and Japan. This violated South Korea’s sovereignty and independence. The newly elected President campaigned to fix this problem. This tough approach towards China is expected to bring South Korea closer to India.
Under the new administration a stronger alliance with the US is expected to be the central basis of South Korean foreign policy. This approach is expected to support the global and regional security architecture created and maintained by the US. This new comprehensive strategic alliance will play a major role in checkmating China’s growing expansionist ambitions. This approach fully aligns with India’s Act East policy through which it is building a new rule-based regional order, and opening many new opportunities for both countries. Together they can keep the South China Sea free and open for international navigation.
Today wars are fought on multiple fronts. New alliances cannot be based solely on military cooperation anymore. Economic retaliation or technological assaults are now a part of warfare. Under the Yoon administration’s proactive foreign policy South Korea and India will be able to cooperate through complex networks in diverse areas to protect vital their security interests.
Through a comprehensive economic and security dialogue, South Korea and India can look forward to explore cooperation in diverse areas such developing cutting-edge semiconductors, batteries, cyber and space security and green energy among others. The new Yoon administration is expected to provide ample opportunities to synchronise their regulatory policies in these key areas.
A new paradigm shift in South Korea-china ties where South Korea does not play junior partner is expected to create new space for India to increase its foothold. India should not only be able to play a more active role in peace building on the Korean peninsula but also able to focus on emerging challenges such as climate change, green energy and public health. With the US as a common partner, Indiakorea defence and strategic cooperation is also expected to get a new life. More attention is expected to be paid on the defence policy alignment than on buying weapons from South Korea.
With new the administration in place India should also be able to respond to the North Korean question. So far South Korea has not invited India to the peace process because of Chinese opposition to India being an active player. So far South Korea has been shying away from promoting a free, open, and all-inclusive order in the Indo-pacific. South Korea under the new administration is expected to participate in the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue in a significant way. Furthermore, South Korea under the Yoon presidency is expected to work closely with Japan. Under the Moon administration, South Korea’s damaged ties with Japan hurt its engagement in regional security issues.
Given the proactive approach of Yoon Seok-yeol to regional cooperation, there is high possibility that his presidency will tilt towards India. The question then is, will the Indian foreign policy establishment be able to fully comprehend the significance of Yoon’s election win in South Korea? Despite “special strategic partnership” lip service, the Indian foreign policy establishment has not been taking Korea seriously. As a result, regardless of the huge trade potential, trade ties between two countries are stuck at a mere $22 billion. The Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) is waiting for an upgrade for a long time. The trade target of $50 billion by 2030 is getting only lip service. Today there is a serious lack of expertise on Korea in the foreign policy establishment. As a result, most of the Indian officials who are deployed to Korea lack deeper understanding of the geopolitical environment on the Korean peninsula. Thus, they are doing more harm than good in Seoul. It is time India fixes the problems affecting its Korea policy in time to avail the opportunities created by the Yoon presidency.
The Yoon presidency has opened new opportunities for India-korea strategic partnership like never before. Let us hope that the Indian foreign policy establishment will be able to rise to the occasion.
Given the proactive approach of Yoon Seok-yeol to regional cooperation, there is high possibility that his presidency will tilt towards India. The question then is, will the Indian foreign policy establishment be ABLE TO FULLY COMPREHEND THE SIGNIFICANCE of Yoon’s election win in South Korea?