Raje’s fate hinges on Karnataka election outcome
Road ahead for Jyotiraditya Scindia is not easy in Madhya Pradesh.
Nowadays, the Scindia family is in discussion in the political circles of the BJP in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. In Rajasthan, all eyes are on the political future of former Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje. At the same time, speculation is rife on whether Union Minister Jyotiraditya Scindia will be the next chief minister of Madhya Pradesh.
Senior BJP leader Raje, who has been CM of Rajasthan twice, wants to be the CM face for the upcoming polls. But the road ahead for Raje is bumpy in view of the indications given by the central leadership so far. Raje has been denied the posts of state president and leader of Opposition in Rajasthan.
The message is that the leadership will not yield to the pressure politics of Raje like previously. However, observers believe that sidelining Vasundhara Raje in state politics will not be easy for the leadership.
Meanwhile, Jyotiraditya Scindia’s supporters have been waiting for the Union Minister’s turn to be the CM of MP ever since he joined the BJP. In fact, Scindia’s verbal attack on Rahul Gandhi last week triggered speculation that his wait will be over now. Some say that Scindia launched a direct attack against Rahul at the behest of the BJP high command. Party insiders are of the view that Prime Minister Narendra Modi and RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat will decide on the fate of Raje and Scindia.
Raje’s political career, in fact, began with her association with BJP, while Jyotiraditya Scindia started off his political journey with Congress. Scindia left Congress in 2020 resulting in the fall of the Congress government in MP. Thereafter, BJP came to power in Bhopal. The BJP fulfilled all his demands. The MLAS loyal to Scindia were given
ministerial posts. Moreover, Scindia was elected to Rajya Sabha, and he was made a central minister as well. Satisfied with his work, PM Modi has given Scindia responsibilities of the two ministries. But his supporters want to see him as CM. But removing CM Shivraj Singh Chouhan, who is the longest-serving BJP chief minister in terms of total time spent in office, will be a tough task. The question being asked is whether the BJP will pick some other leader for CM post if it retains power after this year’s polls in Madhya Pradesh?
Some analysts believe that if BJP wins, Shivraj Singh Chouhan may be allowed to continue as CM for next two years.
However, the road ahead for Scindia will not be easy, as there already are several leaders eyeing the CM post, and most of them are close to PM Modi and Amit Shah. These leaders will not allow Scindia to be given the CM post. Moreover, there will be an immense pressure on Scindia to ensure victory of his candidates in the assembly elections. So the challenges are awaiting Scindia.
The Congress is sparing no effort to defeat Scindia’s candidates. Moreover, the BJP heavyweights would also not like to see the victory of Scindia’s loyalists. Observers
say that PCC chief Kamal Nath and former CM Digvijaya Singh are keenly waiting for Assembly polls so as to settle political scores with Scindia by ensuring defeat of his supporters. As of now, Congress is ahead of BJP in Madhya Pradesh. In addition, Shivraj is facing anti-incumbency sentiments, as he is in power for over 18 years now. However, CM Chouhan has launched several welfare schemes to beat this sentiment. BJP leadership is admitting that winning MP is difficult this time. That is the reason why speculation on a change of guard in MP keeps doing the rounds.
In Rajasthan, the leadership has appointed new faces as state president and
LOP keeping in view the caste equations. However, it is doubtful whether the new team will be able to meet the challenge resulting from Gehlot’s schemes. At the same time, the BJP cannot do without Raje. Her supporters are still hopeful that when the campaign committee is formed, Raje may be declared as CM face.
What is certain is that PM Modi and Amit Shah will give a chance to only one Scindia family member. If Raje is projected CM candidate in Rajasthan, Scindia will be dropped in MP. The Karnataka poll results will decide the strategy for these two states. The leadership can take any risk in Rajasthan and MP if it succeeds in defeating Congress in Karnataka. Raje’s return will be difficult then. In this case, Scindia’s claim for the CM post will be much stronger. What remains to be seen is whether the high command gives Scindia a chance now or two years after winning elections.
In Rajasthan, the leadership has appointed new faces as state president and LOP. BJP can’t do without Raje. Her supporters are hopeful that when the campaign committee is formed, Raje may be declared the CM face.