CAPA India on international travel

International travel will be very complex because it is highly unlikely that there will be a coordinated lifting of restrictions. Instead, passengers are likely to be faced with continually changing regulations on entry and transit conditions depending on their nationality and recent travel history, often introduced with no advance notice in response to new local outbreaks of COVID-19. Now that travel bans have become globally accepted as a legitimate response to a pandemic, they are likely be reintroduced without hesitation should they be required. Virtually all market segments are likely to see a very slow recovery. VFR traffic would normally be the first to pickup as friends and families seek to re-unite after months of separation. However, health concerns associated with travel may limit this segment, especially senior citizens. Discretionary international leisure travel may take even longer as this will be impacted by the weak economy. With companies becoming more comfortable using technology to communicate during lockdown, this may in the future lead to the need for some travel being re-assessed. International traffic is expected to fall from approximately 70 million in FY2020 to 35-40 million in FY2021, and possibly less. These are CAPA India’s initial estimates and will be continually revised.

International operations, especially long-haul services, will likely be the most difficult segment for which to project demand.