‘Together we'll fight the menace’
Inderjit Singh, Aviation Consultant with International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) and former CEO of Indira Gandhi International Airport (IGIA) New Delhi, reflects on the impact of COVID-19 on tourism and a probable recovery mechanism for the secto
The tourism industry is very resilient. The COVID-19 outbreak presents the industry with yet another major and evolving challenge. It has come out of several crises with panache and shall win over this one, too. COVID-19 is unquestionably a war, and one against an unknown enemy. What’s discouraging is that we do not yet fully understand the virus, and we might not for a while!
Tourism in the economic environment global
A strong bond exists between the tourism and aviation sectors. Together, we have undergone the onslaught of viruses such as SARS, H1N1, MERS, Zika and the EVD (Ebola). The COVID-19 pandemic, however, is a different ball game altogether and unique due to its rapid spread across 210 countries. The earlier viruses were localised and confined to certain regions only.
Airports
Tourism
Airlines
Airports and airlines, the two major constituents of the aviation sector have handled with alacrity incidents such as the 9/11 and the Eyjafjallajökull - the volcanic eruption that closed Europe's airspace, and more recently, the worldwide grounding of the 737 MAX. These have adversely effected air transport and consequently, tourism stakeholders.
UNWTO, ACI and IATA collectively estimate a drop of US$1.3 trillion in 2020 compared to the forecasted pre-COVID-19 figures.
Recovery: Slow but certain
While the recovery in demand will be long and slow, it will definitely happen. In the interim, even in the post-COVID era, some new trends will emerge.
Domestic tourism will recover faster than international.
vAirlines should expect to switch to flying fewer and smaller aircraft.
vAirports must integrate social distancing measures. The relatively smaller aircraft with less passenger payload and frequency of movement will work without extra areas.
vSocial distancing norms should be followed in aircraft seat allocations. This would certainly effect revenues, but is important for larger social obligations.
vSocial distancing norms should be extended to surface transport vehicles, hotels, restaurants and tourist sites.
vTechnology should be leveraged to minimise personal contact between the stakeholders at all stages and in all the facilities.
vCracking COVID-19
The UNWTO, ICAO, IATA, Airport Council International (ACI) and the WHO ought to collectively formulate a joint global effort and integrated facilitation procedures to ensure the health and safety of travellers. I have attempted to evolve a mechanism to ensure that every element in the supply chain works in tandem in a fair, effective and coordinated manner. One weak link and the chain will snap!
Conclusion
The million- dollar question is when will we return to preCOVID levels? My short answer is: not for a very long time! The only way to get through this crisis is for all segments of the industry to remain calm against all adversaries and work together. Hence, no more one- time quick- fix solutions and BandAid arrangements, but longterm strategies kept ready to fight this recurring menace. (The views expressed are the author's own. The publication may or may not subscribe to the same.)