TravTalk - India

Inbound surge to remain till 2026

PATA unveiled PATA Asia Pacific Visitor Forecasts 2024-2026, which states internatio­nal arrival numbers are expected to overshadow the pre-pandemic level of 2019 and the inbound arrivals will register continuous surge between 2024-2026, indicating robust

- TT Bureau

Recently, Pacific Asia Travel Associatio­n (PATA) released PATA Asia Pacific Visitor Forecasts 2024-2026 predicting the recovery rate of the travel and tourism industry in Asia Pacific region. As per the forecast report, in 2024, internatio­nal arrival numbers are expected to overshadow the pre-pandemic level of 2019. The surge will continue in 2025 and 2026, as well, indicating robust recovery rates.

The report reveals that Asia, the America, and Europe will play a major role in the augmentati­on of Internatio­nal Visitor Arrivals (IVAs) across the Asia Pacific region. The report states, “Under the medium scenario, those three source regions are predicted to account for almost 92 per cent of all IVAs generated into and across Asia Pacific in 2024, increasing marginally by 2026. Under the mild and severe scenarios, those proportion­s are predicted to differ only very marginally at this aggregate level.”

Top 10 source markets

Among the top 10 source market, China, the USA and Hong Kong SAR, are predicted to be strongest in delivering increased IVA numbers between 2023 and 2024. This results in the top 10 source markets accounting for 59 per cent of all IVAs into and across Asia Pacific in 2024, with an annual increase of 85.5 million foreign arrivals. By end-2026, while top 10 source markets remain the same, two changes in ranking order are predicted to occur:

The top 10 source markets will collective­ly account for 62 per cent of all arrivals across Asia Pacific in 2026.

Asia Pacific IVAs by Destinatio­n Region and Key Source Market

Asia: Across 22 destinatio­ns of Asia considered for the forecast, the aggregate recovery rates are predicted to strengthen from 2024 to 2026.

The forecast states that in 2024, north-east will receive the highest share of IVAs. In 2026, its relative share distributi­on will be 58.5 per cent. In case of West Asia, the relative share will be 11.4 per cent, which will be majorly represente­d by Türkiye.

Intra-Asia travel flows will continue to strengthen IVA numbers across Asia, rising from a 76 per cent share of all arrivals in 2024 to almost 79 per cent by the end of 2026. In 2024, majorly, China is projected to drive the numbers with 23.8 per cent relative share within the Asia source region sector.

Asia, the America, and Europe will play a major role in the augmentati­on of Internatio­nal Visitor Arrivals (IVAs) across the Asia Pacific region

By the end of 2026, India will move ahead of Singapore with 1.9 per cent of IVAs relative share in comparison to 1.7 per cent in 2024

Pacific: The IVAs into and across Pacific are predicted to increase beyond its 2019 level. In this region, Oceania and Polynesia will dominate arrivals, capturing 89 per cent of all foreign arrivals in 2024. While Asia will register a slight growth of 33.5 per cent relative share in 2026 from 32.4 per cent in 2024 as it adds 4.1 million additional IVAs into the Pacific. Half of the top ten source markets in 2024 are forecast to be from Asia, with two from the Americas, and one from Europe.

By the end of 2026, there will be no change in the source market structure with few slight movements as Australia will move ahead of Japan, and India will move ahead of Singapore with 1.9 per cent of IVAs relative share in comparison to 1.7 per cent in 2024.

 ?? ?? Asia Pacific – Forecast top ten source markets 2024, medium scenario
Asia Pacific – Forecast top ten source markets 2024, medium scenario
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