Year of the UCAV

Unmanned combat accelerates

As Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicle (UCAV) prototypes take to the skies, Tim Robinson asks whether this is “the beginning of the next generation of air warfare”. Examined are various new programmes including the X- 47B, nEUROn and Taranis from the West but also new UAV shapes from China, Russia and India.

As Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicle (UCAV) prototypes take to the skies, TIM ROBINSON asks: “is this the beginning of the next generation of air warfare?”

The past decade since 9/ 11 and the subsequent war on terror, including operations in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and elsewhere have seen an explosion in military UAV/UAS types and missions — ranging from B-737 wingspan-sized Global Hawks, to mini and nano-helicopters. Armed ‘drones’ are now an established weapon system. Yet the majority of these platforms have had one thing in common; they are all designed to work in permissive environments against enemies that lack SAMs, AAA and fighter defences. However, that is now about to change with a new generation of unmanned vehicles — the UCAV. These, unlike the armed-UAVs, are designed from the beginning with stealth in mind to penetrate hostile airspace and complete their mission. Removing the pilot also means that the aircraft’s vertical profile can be reduced, lowering its radar cross-section (RCS). It is no coincidence, then that almost all these low-observable aircraft share the same triangular radar-defeating shape.

Building on a decade or so of research subscale prototypes and models, companies and governments across the globe are now working to develop new technology demonstrators. In the past year or so two European UCAV demonstrators have flown while, in the US, a naval UCAV has made history with the first carrier deck launch. Beyond the US and Europe, nations such as China, India and Russia are also looking to develop their own UCAV programmes. Let’s take a look at the current projects.

Northrop Grumman X-47B

On 14 May 2013 off the coast of Virginia, the US Navy conducted a historic event in naval aviation — the first catapult launch at sea of a UCAV from an aircraft carrier, the USS George H.W. Bush. The UCAV in question? The Northrop Grumman X-47B which first flew in 2011. This is a 19m wingspan stealth UAS, with a P&W F100 engine and 2,100nm range. This demonstrator, currently under the US Navy’s UCAS- D ( Unmanned Combat Air System Demonstration) was spun out of DARPA’s earlier USN/USAF J-UCAS (Joint -Unmanned Combat Air Systems). J-UCAS, which saw an earlier Northrop Grumman UCAV, the X-47, evaluated with Boeing’s X-45, was axed in 2006, leaving the Navy to go it alone with the UCAS-D. Northrop has built two flying X-47B prototypes for UCAS-D which, in the past year have carried out carrier interoperability tests, the first land-based catapult launch and, on 4 May, the first arrested landing at the US Navy’s test centre at Patuxent River. The next series of tests started in mid-May, beginning with an at sea launch from the USS George H.W. Bush.

Should these tests validate the decade of work on this concept, the US Navy plans to move to the next stage with an operational version, UCLASS (Unmanned Carrier Launched Airborne Surveillance and Strike System). An RFP for this is expected to be launched shortly, with the UCAV expected to be in limited service by 2020. Already industrial competitors are jockeying for position to win this contract. NG

itself is expected to offer a development of the X-47, the X-47C. Boeing, meanwhile, building on experience with its X-45 and privately-funded Phantom Ray demonstrator is also expected to bid. General Atomics has a low-observable jetpowered design, the Predator C - Sea Avenger. Finally, in April 2013 Lockheed Martin revealed its proposal for UCLASS, with a UCAV design that echoes the RQ-170 Sentinel.

Dassault nEUROn

But late in 2012, while the X-47 was undergoing tests in the US, across the Atlantic another UCAV made its first flight on 1 December at the Istres test centre in France. This was the €405m panEuropean Dassault nEUROn demonstrator. This 12.5m wingspan vehicle, which is powered by a R-R Adour engine, is equipped with a weapons bay building on Dassault’s earlier experience over the previous 13 years with subscale demonstrators such as the Petit Duc and Moyen Duc. Although Dassault is the prime contractor, the nEUROn has been expanded into a larger pan-European project, with other partners consisting of Greece’s EAB, Italy’s Alenia, Spain’s EADS CASA, Sweden’s Saab, and Swiss RUAG Aerospace. Saab, in particular, also brings its experience of sub-scale stealth demonstrators, like FILUR, to the programme. The nEUROn has a twoyear test programme ahead of it, with flight tests in France and then operational tests in Sweden, culminating in weapon- release tests. Despite its weapons bay, this is still very much a technology demonstrator aimed at building up European expertise in this area. Whether another demonstrator or a production UCAV is the next step probably hinges on Anglo-French UCAV collaboration decisions and the willingness of the UK to merge its project, below, into a larger European programme.

BAE Systems Taranis

The second stealth UCAV demonstrator from Europe is probably, outside China, the most secretive ; BAE Systems’ Taranis. Named after the Celtic god of thunder, Taranis was first publically unveiled in 2010. It builds on BAE’s experience in autonomy and UAS from UAVs such as Herti, to earlier projects like Raven and Corax. Additionally, BAE also has experience of low-observable platforms, through projects such as Replica. Though like nEUROn and the X-47B, it is a technology demonstrator not an operational weapon system, with the stated intention of ‘ informing’ plans for the UK’s combat capability. This then links into earlier FOAS ( Future Offensive Air System) MoD studies which aimed at developing a replacement for the Tornado strike aircraft. However, as noted above, the MoD is extremely coy about Taranis and its capabilities. Informed observers suggest that, like the nEUROn, the vehicle is powered by a R-R Adour engine. But, while the nEUROn flew in France, BAE is understood to have transported Taranis to Australia to the vast Woomera range to make its first flight there. It follows the company’s pattern of testing other UAV products in these large uninhabited ranges which simultaneously provides extra safety and also protects a stealth design from prying eyes.

Beyond this, the UK is engaged with France on UCAV collaboration. This perhaps will see, if the requirements converge, a joint Anglo-French UCAV demonstrator, or potentially even the leap to a production version. However, with the European aerospace industry desperate for a new combat aircraft programme, the devil is likely to be in the detail.

Now, China

But Europe and the US are not the only ones interested in this leap in combat aircraft technology. Recent years have seen a massive explosion in China’s military aircraft projects, including a number of UAVs. Some of these, it is clear, are intended to be armed. There also appear to be signs of UCAV research, including sub-scale demonstrators. Only in May 2013 there appeared images on the Internet of what is claimed to be a Chinese UCAV, the Lijian ( Sharp Sword), undergoing taxiing tests. Gauging whether any of these designs, sometimes spotted in model form at exhibitions, on leaked webpages or on academic posters, will reach production or enter service is problematic. But the strategic surprise of China unveiling not one but two new stealth fighters in quick succession shows that Beijing is serious about expanding its military aircraft capabilities. It clearly sees UCAV technology as an avenue worth pursuing.

And India

Another rising power in the Asia-Pacific, India is also developing its own UCAV technology demonstrator programme, the Indian Unmanned Strike Air Vehicle ( IUSAV). The air vehicle from the Defence Research and Development Organisation ( DRDO) is called Aura and is currently in the design and optimisation stage. Aura will feature weapon bays for precision missiles and will be powered by India’s Kaveri engine. A first flight is planned for the 2015-16 timeframe.

Finally, Russia

Russia, too, has had its own UCAV programme, in the form of the MiG Skat ( Manta Ray) demonstrator, a full- size model of which

This may in fact be the biggest breakthrough in combat aircraft since the introduction of the jet engine.

was unveiled at the 2007 Moscow Air Show. Interestingly, a manned version of this tailless vehicle was planned, possibly because of a lack of experience in these flying wing designs compared to western companies. However, the Skat is now believed to have been shelved, with MiG’s experience on this project to be merged with Sukhoi in developing a new heavyweight strike UAV. Russia‘s immediate need, however, is ISR UAVs, which may explain why it has reset its UCAV effort.

Black programmes

In addition to these public ‘white world’ efforts it is also probable that a number of ‘black’ classified UCAV prototypes are also in development or even may be in limited service already. It is notable, for instance, that Israel, one of the premier nations in exploiting and developing unmanned systems, has not yet revealed a UCAV technology demonstrator, leading some to speculate it may be working on a clandestine UCAV project.

Further speculation exists around a rumoured US long-endurance stealthy UAS that may be the real reason why the Global Hawk HALE platform could be retired. This, according to at least one media report, may have a bomb-bay, giving it a precision strike capability.

Enabling technologies

Yet the introduction of UCAVs into service as they stand might not qualify on its own as a revolution in combat aviation. An unmanned, less flexible F-117 strike aircraft might be the equivalent. However, there are other technologies now under development that, if added to the UCAV, promise a true transformation in military aviation.

Firstly, is the concept of ‘UCAV wingmen’. With a two- seat manned fighter, a backseat weapons officer could command UCAVs to strike SAM threats ahead of a vital attack or use the LO vehicles to thread between air defence zones to clear the way for manned, unstealthy fighters. Advances in HMI ( human machine interface) or voice recognition may mean that a single pilot could control them, treating each UCAV like a human wingman that responds to voice or datalink commands. This may even also allow a stealth fighter datalinked to UCAVs with BVRAAM air-to-air missiles as a sort of ‘in-flight reload’ — allowing a massive volley of first shots without putting extra humans at risk. HumanUAV wingman control has already been tested in the UK using a Tornado and a BAC 1-11 as a surrogate UAV.

Another enabling technology is air- to- air refuelling. Although some UAVs feature extreme persistence, adding an AAR ability would allow UCAVs to refuel and stay on station almost indefinitely, barring weapon reloads or limitations in the reliability of other systems on board. Challenges remain (would a UCAV tanker also need to be low-observable and would avionics now need space-satellite levels of reliability?) but again this concept is already being tested. In 2012 NASA flew two Global Hawk UAVs in close formation as part of unmanned AAR tests. Meanwhile, in the UK, Cobham has been investigating automated probe-and-drogue refuelling as part of the civil ASTRAEA project. The UCAS-D programme also includes automated aerial refuelling trials.

The final piece in this puzzle is the potential of directed energy weapons (DEW), either lasers or microwave weapons to equip these UCAVs.

A rechargeable weapon with unlimited shots, carried by an invisible strike aircraft able to stay aloft for days, perhaps weeks at a time, would truly be ‘Star Wars’ technology.

Challenges

Yet, despite the potential advantages of these UCAVs, there still remain a number of obstacles to developing and fielding such airborne weapon systems. The first, quite obviously, is cost. As the complexity of a UAV increases and its systems become more refined, so does the cost increase. Add stealth, and a UCAV becomes anything but a throwaway disposable asset. Some observers estimate that a production UCAV could cost as much as a F-35. For today’s western militaries, including the US, where it has had to ground one-third of its combat air wings last year due to sequestration, cost is a major concern. It is thus likely that true UCAVs will be niche weapon systems, affordable by only the wealthiest powers for the near future. Replacing strike aircraft onefor-one, therefore, seems highly unlikely.

This neatly leads on to the second challenge. If the market is still unknown, can UCAVs support the previous manned fighter industrial footprint? There is also the question whether today’s UCAVs will lead to the quick extinction of the manned fighter, or whether these programmes will help bridge the gap between today’s fighters and notional ‘sixth generation’ combat aircraft. The jury on this still appears to be out but industry faces hard choices. Previously in Europe, for example, splits in fighter requirements and industrial haggling led to the Dassault Rafale, Eurofighter Typhoon and Saab Gripen. Will this be repeated for any European UCAVs, where production numbers might be even lower?

The final obstacle, according to some insiders, may be the biggest. That of culture. Although UAVs have grown enormously in the past decade or so, it is because they have taken the dull, dirty and dangerous roles. UCAVs on the other hand, potentially threaten the role of the fighter pilot and just as ‘turkeys don’t vote for Christmas‘ so the introduction of UCAVs may be resisted by vested interests. However, ingrained as this culture may be, it is likely to change over time. Not too long ago, the USAF high command, for example, was dominated by the ‘bomber barons’, who elevated SAC into prime position. Today, when the USAF trains more UAV operators than fighter pilots, there may come a time when the ‘UAV mafia’ occupy the command slots.

And so

In conclusion, as these demonstrators take to the air, this is a highly significant time for the future of combat aviation. Although (ultra-classified black programmes aside) we are still some time away from operational squadrons of UCAVs, the trend is clear. This may in fact be the biggest breakthrough in combat aircraft since the introduction of the jet engine. Early UCAVs, like the early jet fighters, may be limited in roles and capability but these may quickly evolve. And, while fighter pilots may worry that a robot may eventually replace them, for the foreseeable future the UCAV will supplement manned fighters, bringing new capabilities to allow the fighter pilot to become a ‘battlespace commander’ and dominate space and, now with persistence of unmanned systems, time. Welcome to the future!

DRAGON RISING This image appeared on Chinese internet forums showing what purports to be the ‘Sharp Sword’ UCAV undergoing taxiing tests.