AN IMMENSE OPPORTUNITY

The land of the historical Great Games and the ‘graveyard of many empires’, is according to many analysts, now inexorably heading for another Great Game, not between any imperial powers but two of Afghanistan’s important neighbours, India and Pakistan. Post the ill-timed and premature, 2014 slated drawdown of all US and ISAF forces from this continuing fratricidal violence-afflicted country, both India and Pakistan naturally have their own, largely disparate, strategic interests. However, what is glaring is that Pakistan’s myopic agendas in Afghanistan are hardly conducive to peace in the region for it is merely reducing Indo-Pak relations in Afghanistan unnecessarily to a zero-sum game, which need not be but instead transform into a win- win situation for both nations, in fact become a confidence building measure between them.

An analysis of Pakistan’s strategy and multiple interests in Afghanistan, as followed by the former over some decades, largely stems from its stubborn adherence to the antiquated ‘strategic depth’ obsession, a desire to have a pliant regime in Kabul and keeping, unwisely, Indian influence totally out of the land of the Hindu Kush. Further, Pakistan seeks safe havens for its trained extremists, keeping the contentious Durand Line (never ever recognised by any Afghan regime) tranquil and there are endeavours to discourage the ever present latent Pashtun unity along the border regions with Afghanistan besides, also looking for Afghanistan to be its gateway to the energy rich Central Asian Republics( CARs). Importantly, Pakistan had made itself indispensable, at least logistically, to the US and NATO forces on the two critical supply routes to Afghanistan pass through Pakistan and has thus been getting its financial succour from the US thanks to the ‘super power’s presence in Afghanistan since 2001. Pakistan, in alarmingly dire economic straits has, by conservative estimates, obtained a largesse of $ 20 billion from the US over this period.

On the other hand India, apart from cementing its old civilisational and friendly links with Afghanistan, primarily seeks to ensuring Afghanistan not becoming a major safe haven and training ground for anti-India terrorists, a natural fall-out with a radical regime in Kabul. Afghanistan also provides much needed access for both Indian imports and exports to the CARs. In seeking political and economic influence in Afghanistan, India has thus ‘ invested’ over $ 2 billion in various humanitarian developmental projects, while also providing military training to Afghanistan Security Forces. Overall, India desires Afghanistan, under a secular regime, becomes an important and independent partner in the regional security architecture of South Asia. There is a strong possibility that with the withdrawal of the US forces in 2014, Pakistan’s ISI may already be working on contingency plans to divert then many out-of-work terrorists to up the ante in the Indian state of J&K and current indicators in the region all point to ISI’s machinations in this nefarious game.

Meanwhile, Afghanistan, under outgoing President Hamid Karzai, although largely suspicious of Pakistan, has been navigating carefully with both “friendly India” and “brotherly Pakistan” perhaps not very successfully ! In October 2011, Afghanistan had concluded a Strategic Agreement and obtained additional financial aid and an increased Indian commitment to train its Army and the Police. However what is currently worrisome for Afghan security and stability is the yet unagreed-upon Bilateral Security Agreement between President Karzai and the US government which if not signed will, in the ultimate analysis, only assist radical forces like the Taliban and the Haqqani network in Afghanistan once the Americans depart. As current indications point Pakistan, would like its pliant ‘strategic assets’ comprising the conglomerate of fundamentalist elements to assume power in Kabul after the US departs.

Still, Pakistan must understand that a democratic and stable Afghanistan is equally important for both India and Pakistan and thus both nations must make a concerted effort to have a constructive and cooperative policy for it. Afghanistan is not considered by India as a region of competing national interests and its economic assistance to Afghanistan aims to contribute to the latter’s economic development which in turn supports its political stability and security. Pakistan must rid itself of a mere anti-India centric approach in Afghanistan. Pakistan’s allegations that the existence of Indian consulates in Afghanistan are directed against Pakistan’s interests are ill-founded and unsubstantiated misapprehensions.

Pakistan must comprehend, in its own interest, that the real threat to security and stability of Afghanistan and ultimately to itself comes from violent and extremist groups like the Afghan Taliban, elements of the Al Qaeda, the Haqqani network and the anti-Pakistan Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), and the latter’s linkages with the Afghan Taliban are only increasing by the day. After TTP supremo Hakimuulah Mehsud’s elimination by a US drone in North Waziristan, the TTP have vowed to take serious revenge which should send warning signals to Pakistani’s government.

To both India and Pakistan, an objective analysis of the current dynamics and also in the foreseeable future of Afghanistan will clearly bring out the benefits which can accrue if relationships are based on a trilateral cooperative approach. A stable and peaceful Afghanistan, acting as a hub of trade and transit and as a corridor for both India and Pakistan to the energy rich CARs will be of immense economic benefit to the three nations. This shared interest thus calls for a serious Indo-Pak dialogue on Afghanistan to address any mutual apprehensions and develop a cooperative framework which contributes to the security and stability of a hapless Afghanistan and thus benefits both India and Pakistan. Indeed, this was a unanimous recommendation of the German think tank, the globally acclaimed FES sponsored Track 2 Dialogue between renowned Indian and Pakistani participants discussing vexed Indo-Pak issues. It was strongly felt that there was no requirement for differences on Afghanistan to be added to the already overflowing plate of growing Indo-Pak tensions ! On the other hand, a sincere, mutually accommodating Trilateral Dialogue could be in the interest of India, Pakistan, Afghanistan and South Asia as our entity.