IATA : Air pas­sen­ger num­bers will nearly dou­ble …

Vayu Aerospace and Defence - - Contents - Cour­tesy: IATA

The In­ter­na­tional Air Trans­port As­so­ci­a­tion (IATA) ex­pects 7.8 bil­lion pas­sen­gers to travel in 2036, vir­tu­ally dou­bling the num­ber ex­pected to fly that year. How­ever, plan­ning for growth will re­quire part­ner­ship to be strength­ened be­tween the avi­a­tion in­dus­try, com­mu­ni­ties and gov­ern­ments.

The In­ter­na­tional Air Trans­port As­so­ci­a­tion ( IATA) ex­pects 7.8 bil­lion pas­sen­gers to travel in 2036, a near dou­bling of the 4 bil­lion air trav­el­ers ex­pected to fly this year. The pre­dic­tion is based on a 3.6% av­er­age Com­pound An­nual Growth Rate (CAGR) as noted in the lat­est up­date of the as­so­ci­a­tion’s 20- Year Air Pas­sen­ger Fore­cast. “All in­di­ca­tors lead to grow­ing de­mand for global con­nec­tiv­ity. The world needs to pre­pare for a dou­bling of pas­sen­gers in the next 20 years. It’s fan­tas­tic news for in­no­va­tion and pros­per­ity, which is driven by air links. It is also a huge chal­lenge for gov­ern­ments and in­dus­try to en­sure we can suc­cess­fully meet this essen­tial de­mand,” said Alexan­dre de Ju­niac, IATA’s Di­rec­tor Gen­eral and CEO.

The big­gest driver of de­mand will be the Asia-Pa­cific re­gion, the source of more than half the new pas­sen­gers over the next two decades. The point at which China will dis­place the United States as the world’s largest avi­a­tion mar­ket (de­fined as traf­fic to, from and within the coun­try) has moved two years closer since the last fore­cast. “We now an­tic­i­pate this will oc­cur around 2022, through a com­bi­na­tion of slightly faster Chi­nese growth and slightly re­duced growth in the US. The UK will fall to fifth place, sur­passed by In­dia in 2025, and In­done­sia in 2030. Thai­land and Tur­key will en­ter the top ten largest mar­kets, while France and Italy will fall in the rank­ings to 11th and 12th re­spec­tively.”

How­ever, a num­ber of risks to the fore­cast have been iden­ti­fied. Max­imis­ing the po­ten­tial ben­e­fits of avi­a­tion growth will de­pend on cur­rent lev­els of trade lib­er­al­i­sa­tion and visa fa­cil­i­ta­tion be­ing main­tained. If trade pro­tec­tion­ism and travel re­stric­tions are put in place, the ben­e­fits of air con­nec­tiv­ity will de­cline as growth could slow to 2.7%, mean­ing 1.1 bil­lion fewer pas­sen­ger jour­neys an­nu­ally in 2036. Con­versely, if moves to­wards lib­er­al­i­sa­tion in­crease, an­nual growth could be more than two per­cent­age points faster, lead­ing to a tripling in pas­sen­gers over the next 20 years.

Plan­ning for growth will re­quire part­ner­ships to be strength­ened be­tween the avi­a­tion in­dus­try, com­mu­ni­ties and gov­ern­ments to ex­pand and mod­ernise in­fra­struc­ture. Run­ways, ter­mi­nals, and ground ac­cess to air­ports will come un­der

in­creas­ing strain. In­no­va­tive so­lu­tions to these chal­lenges, as well as to the bag­gage and se­cu­rity pro­cesses, cargo han­dling, and other ac­tiv­i­ties, will also be needed. Also, air traf­fic man­age­ment needs ur­gent re­form to cut de­lays, costs and emis­sions.

“In­creas­ing de­mand will bring a sig­nif­i­cant in­fra­struc­ture chal­lenge. The so­lu­tion does not lie in more com­plex pro­cesses or build­ing big­ger and big­ger air­ports but in har­ness­ing the power of new tech­nol­ogy to move ac­tiv­ity off-air­port, stream­line pro­cesses and im­prove ef­fi­ciency. Through part­ner­ships within the in­dus­try and be­yond, we are con­fi­dent that sus­tain­able so­lu­tions for con­tin­ued growth can be found,” said de Ju­niac.

The avi­a­tion in­dus­try has adopted a ro­bust strat­egy to re­duce its en­vi­ron­men­tal im­pacts, par­tic­u­larly its car­bon emis­sions. “No in­dus­try has done more to meet its en­vi­ron­men­tal obli­ga­tions than has avi­a­tion. Our tough tar­gets to achieve car­bon-neu­tral growth from 2020 and to cut our CO2 emis­sions to half-2005 lev­els by 2050 are backed by a com­pre­hen­sive strat­egy. Our im­me­di­ate aims are to work with gov­ern­ments to in­crease the pro­duc­tion of sus­tain­able avi­a­tion fu­els, and to de­liver air traf­fic man­age­ment ef­fi­cien­cies, which prom­ise sig­nif­i­cant emis­sions sav­ings. And from 2020, a Car­bon Off­set­ting and Re­duc­tion Scheme for In­ter­na­tional Avi­a­tion (CORSIA) will play a ma­jor role in meet­ing our car­bon-neu­tral tar­get,” said de Ju­niac.

An Air In­dia Boe­ing 787 Dream­liner

In­digo ATR 72-600

Newspapers in English

Newspapers from India

© PressReader. All rights reserved.