BRIS and the Mod Quad
Bharat Karnad’s analysis of India’s evolving social, political and economic milieu, under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, is a critical perspective, both argumentative and thought provoking. Ajai Shukla’s review of the book ‘Staggering Forward’ extracted below, first appeared in the ‘Business Standard’ and pertinent parts are reproduced along with with the chapter on ShinMaywa which would be of special interest to readers of the Vayu Aerospace & Defence Review.
Many of the themes in Bharat Karnad’s latest offering were earlier fleshed out in his 2015 book, Why India is Not a Great Power (Yet) and have since been amplified in his prolific writings, blog posts and speaking appearances. Mr Karnad, who styles himself in his blog as “India’s foremost conservative strategist”, certainly has robust views. He believes that if India wants to be treated like a Great Power, it must start thinking like one. New Delhi’s defence and security focus should be on China, without wasting effort on minnows like Pakistan. To ward off China, India must abandon its pusillanimous “No-First-Use” nuclear doctrine and be ready to go first with nuclear weapons to halt a Chinese conventional attack. To persuade Beijing from responding in kind, Mr Karnad wants India to develop, test and deploy thermonuclear weapons, which he regards as the final arbiters of power. Washington, he believes, constrains, not benefits, India. The relationship with Moscow must be nurtured more carefully. Karnad also wants India to outflank China and Pakistan through military bases in Central Asia and the Gulf.
In this book, Mr Karnad looks inwards at the trajectory Indian politics and policymaking has followed since Prime Minister Narendra Modi came to power in 2014. Given the author’s unapologetic, nationalistic, Indiafirst approach to security policy, many would logically expect him to endorse the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP’s) policies and achievements. But the hawkish Karnad of foreign and security policy reveals himself as slightly leftish liberal on domestic policy. This revealing sentence sums up his book: “This book is in the
main a critique of Modi’s foreign and national security policies – an audit if you will… If readers find the analysis suffused with disappointment, they will not be wrong.”
In the book’s most original strategic construct, the author suggests New Delhi could obtain genuine strategic autonomy and counter the “proto-hegemons” – the US and China – through two new security coalitions. The first is BRIS – named after Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa – which is BRICS with China removed. Mr Karnad, however, does not clarify who will expel China, or how.
The other coalition India should join is the catchily named Mod Quad, short for Modified Quadrilateral. This weaponised grouping cuts out America from the current Quadrilateral (India, US, Japan and Australia), replacing it with a rash of South East Asian countries. Myanmar and Vietnam book-end the landward side, while Indonesia and the Philippines anchor the sea- end, with other countries like Singapore, Thailand, Brunei and Malaysia in the middle. Given the difficulties these very countries face in presenting a united front in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), Karnad should have clarified how they would manage with the additional contradictions of the Quadrilateral.
Notwithstanding several contradictions, Mr Karnad presents an interesting evaluation of Mr Modi’s strategic and economic performance, which will probably be widely read in an election year (see below).