Facing the Dragon
Tensions along the LAC have escalated with Chinese troops firing in the air to intimidate the Indian side at Mukhpari Top in eastern Ladakh’s Chushul sector. This is the first time in 45 years that firing has taken place at the LAC, further exemplifying China’s disregard for the 1993 Peace and Tranquillity Agreement and subsequent arrangements to ensure calm at the LAC. It’s clear that China wants to unilaterally push the LAC westwards and is extremely upset with Indian forces preemptively occupying strategic heights on the Kailash range – on the Indian side of the LAC – that gives them a clear line of sight of the crucial PLA Moldo garrison and helps them dominate all ingress routes through the Spanggur Gap.
But eastern Ladakh is only one part of the larger strategic-security tussle in play. According to intel reports, the PLA has violated the LAC several times over the past two months in Arunachal Pradesh, Sikkim and Uttarakhand. Thus, China could keep the entire LAC hot and force a war of attrition on India. With far deeper pockets, and having contained the Covid pandemic, Beijing may think it can out manoeuvre New Delhi here.
To tackle this challenge, India has no choice but to adopt a whole of government response whereby it must work on multiple fronts.
It will need bigger spending to shore up its defences. In this regard, global rating agencies such as Fitch and Goldman Sachs forecast the Indian economy contracting by 10-15% in the current fiscal. This needs to be quickly arrested through a big fiscal stimulus package to revive growth in the short term, and simultaneously enacting deep reforms to put the economy on a high growth trajectory.
On the foreign policy front, India must push for an alliance of democracies to counter China. This should include, immediately, asking for advanced satellite intel from the US for greater domain awareness along the LAC (assuming New Delhi hasn’t already procured this). Domestically, the government must foster social cohesion and unity at home, which must include arresting the present trend of political polarisation for perceived short term electoral ends. Central agencies must act in an independent and non-partisan manner. States’ grievances on GST compensation should be addressed. We must recognise that China today poses an unprecedented strategic-security challenge. The only way we can rise to the occasion is if we become internally strong by mobilising all available resources.