War in the Caucasus: sharp - and decisive!
The 44-day war in the Caucasus during October-November 2020, had some surprises for the world. Azerbaijan’s advanced warfare technology (especially its armoured drones purchased from Turkey and Israel) completely turned the tide to overwhelm Armenian armed forces deployed in the NagornoKarabakh region. Drone strikes targeted Armenian and Karabakh soldiers and destroyed tanks, artillery and air defence systems, which is an ‘eyeopener‘ on how futuristic battlefields could be shaped by relatively simple and inexperienced crew using unmanned attached drones.
For long, the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region has been recognised as being part of Azerbaijan, but for several decades was controlled by Armenian separatists. When the Soviet Union began to disintegrate in the late 1980s, Armenia’s regional parliament voted for the region’s transfer to Armenia and years of clashes followed between Azerbaijan forces and Armenian separatists. Despite a Russian-brokered ceasefire agreement in place since 1994, violations took place at regular intervals, the most significant being in 2016 and July 2020.
From July to September 2020, Azerbaijan conducted a series of military exercises with participation of Turkey’s ground and air forces, which likely strengthened Azerbaijan’s perceived power and resolve to end the Karabakh conflict in its favour. Apart from imparting high quality military training and advanced combat equipment, Turkey also exported high-tech drones to the Azerbaijan’s armed forces and concurrently trained them to use these in the most effective manner on the battlefield. Armenian soldiers faced this new reality on 27 September when Bayraktar TB2 UCAVs started releasing Roketsan MAM-L Smart Munitions over Armenian positions, decimating at least three 9K33 Osa and three 9K35 Strela-10 mobile surface-to-air missile systems. The Armenians appeared just as unaware and incapable of tackling the drone threat overhead as did the Russian Pantsir-S1s in Syria and Libya, all being destroyed without ever knowing what had hit them. Turkey’s highly efficient use of drones and supporting electronics warfare systems has boosted its increasingly assertive international role and growing political and military weight.
Armenian forces were shocked that that their air defence systems in Nagorno-Karabakh, many of them veteran Soviet systems, were impossible to defend against drone attacks, and losses quickly mounted. Also, adopting a very clever war tactic, Azerbaijan’s forces converted very elderly An-2 biplanes into a single use drone. These slow moving aircraft were flown over Armenian defences deployed on the battle ground. Armenians activated their radars and electronic warfare systems, hence giving away their locations to Azerbaijan’s armed drones and loitering ammunitions (Bayraktar TB2 and Harpy 2) deployed in that region to neutralise these targets.
The war was over on 10 November 2020 after Armenia accepted a cease-fire on punishing terms to end the latest round of battle over Nagorno-Karabakh. In Azerbaijan, the victory was described as “historic” and that Armenia had been forced to negotiate because of Azerbaijan’s military successes. Meanwhile, the Russian‘s have deployed some 2000 soldiers with tanks to act as peacekeepers for the next five years, positioned along the frontline in Nagorno-Karabakh and in the corridor between Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh.