Fly at Mach speeds

The relentless march of humanity has pushed the travel dimensions across time and distance. The early modes of intercontinental travel were through maritime route; however the Wright Brothers were instrumental in changing the face of travel forever. The rapid expansion and technology growth, post the World Wars helped the air travel sector to connect airports and continents quicker. The increase in the range of commercial aircraft transformed a historic transatlantic event to a day-to-day event. The continued quest for reducing the time taken resulted in rapid research and development funding in the area of increasing the speed of travel.

The result of multiple attempts to reduce the travel duration was showcased in 1969, wherein the world witnessed first flight of the Concorde. The Aérospatiale/ BAC Concorde was a Anglo- French supersonic aircraft. It could travel at twice the speed of sound, which resulted in halving the time between transatlantic destinations. The average cost per ticket to save a few hours was around 25-30 times higher than the cheapest airfare option. This was one of the key reasons that the airline which operated these aircraft could maintain profitability in the routes it operated, despite high maintenance costs.

The total programme cost was around $ 10 billion (adjusted to 2017), the unit cost was around $ 160 million. Around 20 units were built between 1965- 1979 and the two key operators were Air France and British Airways. The Concorde was retired in 2003, the fatal crash of Air France Flight 4590 and the withdrawal of support by Airbus drivers for the early retirement.

There has been a lot of discussion on the relaunch of Super Sonic Aircraft, however the high maintenance and the availability of multiple low-cost options are challenging factors to the programme and an airline. A simple example of the maintenance cost would be the possibility of the tyre of a supersonic aircraft to burst is 30 times higher compared to a sub-sonic aircraft. These factors makes supersonic jets only viable for the small population of High Net Worth Individuals which has helped in shifting the focus of supersonic jets development to the business jets market.

There are around seven business jets which are now in various stages of development, around which around 4-5 are from the United States. The aviation sector is an ecosystem, which means the dependency on the adjacent link is high. The business jet manufacturers need to work in tandem with the airport authorities and their suppliers in the areas of maintenance, fuel efficiency, noise levels and the sonic boom.

The sonic boom would prevent the full performance of supersonic aircraft over- populated area. This means that

the supersonic aircraft can be flown at its optimal performance over sea, like on a transatlantic route.

Boeing has partnered with Aerion to develop a supersonic business jet and it is expected to demonstrate its first flight in 2023- 2024. The AS2 aims at a speed of around 1000 mph with the aircraft as the first ever aircraft designed for carbonneutral operations. The other significant aspect includes 100% biofuel capability and no afterburners.

It is expected that the aircraft could be certified by 2026. The company has around 300 staff and its order books are for around 20 aircraft. The estimated price is around $ 120-160 million and it expects to manufacture around 300 aircraft in the first ten years. The key suppliers of the programme include GE Aviation, GKN Aerospace, Aernnova Aerospace, Safran and Potez Aerospace.

Meanwhile, Lockheed Martin’s X-59 is designed to reduce the sonic boom which could allow the operability of supersonic business jets over land. The X-59 is expected to conduct its first flight in 2021. The experience of SR-71 is expected to help Lockheed Martin in their quest for supersonic business jet, the SR-71 having exceeded Mach 3 in 1971. The other promising aircraft programmes are involve countries like Japan and Russia. The Russian SSBJ, a variant of Tu-160 bomber is also a possible contender in this market.

The introduction of some new business models in this market, like air taxis and fractional ownership has helped to entice new operators. However, it is important to note that the cost of travel in a supersonic jet would be much higher compared to a sub sonic business jet, and it would not be easy to estimate the demand for business jets based on the Post Covid business jet operators market. The Covid has positively impacted this market, where there is a surge in demand for business jet travel compared to Pre- Covid times.

Having considered the small market demand and the current supersonic business jet in development, we will wait and watch on the outcome. The first launched supersonic business jet would definitely have the advantage of higher market penetration, provided the brand represents a symbol of safety and trust.