Forecasts from Eric­s­son Mo­bil­ity Re­port 2014

Voice&Data - - CASE STUDY -

2015: Mo­bile sub­scrip­tions to sur­pass global pop­u­la­tion

In 2015, the to­tal num­ber of mo­bile sub­scrip­tions will ex­ceed the world’s pop­u­la­tion. Mo­bile sub­scrip­tions have grown by 7 per­cent year-over-year, with 120 mil­lion net ad­di­tions in Q1 alone. In­dia leads the ‘Top 5’ coun­tries by net ad­di­tions in Q1 2014. The top 5 coun­tries by net ad­di­tions ac­counted for more than 50 per­cent of new mo­bile sub­scrip­tions in Q1 2014. Mo­bile broad­band sub­scrip­tions also con­tinue to grow and will reach 7.6 bil­lion by the end of 2019, rep­re­sent­ing more than 80 per­cent of to­tal mo­bile sub­scrip­tions.

2016: Smart­phones to out­num­ber ba­sic mobiles

In the next two years, by 2016, the num­ber of smart­phone sub­scrip­tions will ex­ceed those for ba­sic phones and by 2019 the num­ber of smart­phone sub­scrip­tions is ex­pected to reach 5.6 bil­lion. In Europe, the num­ber of smart­phone sub­scrip­tions will reach about 765 mil­lion in 2019, ex­ceed­ing the pop­u­la­tion statis­tic.

In Q1 2014, 65 per­cent of all phones sold were smart­phones. Com­pared to to­day, a smart­phone user in 2019 is ex­pected to con­sume almost four times the amount of mo­bile data per month. This con­trib­utes to the 10-fold growth fore­cast in mo­bile data traf­fic be­tween 2013 and 2019.

2019: M2M de­vices to cross 500 mil­lion

The num­ber of ac­tive cel­lu­lar M2M de­vices will in­crease 3-4 times by 2019, from 200 mil­lion at the end of 2013. While the majority of cel­lu­lar M2M de­vices to­day are still GSM-only, that is ex­pected to shift by 2016 when 3G/4G will rep­re­sent the majority of ac­tive cel­lu­lar M2M sub­scrip­tions. Rima Qureshi, Se­nior Vice Pres­i­dent and Eric­s­son’s Chief Strat­egy Of­fi­cer, says: “We see cel­lu­lar M2M tak­ing off. Over time, cel­lu­lar M2M ser­vices and ap­pli­ca­tions re­lated to, for ex­am­ple, in­tel­li­gent trans­port sys­tems, will re­quire very short la­tency in or­der to be ef­fi­cient. By 2019, we es­ti­mate that more than 20 per­cent of the ac­tive cel­lu­lar M2M de­vices will be con­nected to LTE sub­scrip­tions. We also see new de­vice-to-de­vice and M2M ap­pli­ca­tions as a key fo­cus of 5G net­works.”

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