SA/NSA/FDD/TDD all in play and co-existing
In 2020, a typical 5G smartphone will be a very smart device. As many 5G networks are being launched using 5G non-standalone (NSA), this mode will be supported on most new devices along with 5G standalone (SA) mode. In both modes, phones will support:
• 5G carrier aggregation
• spectrum sharing
• low-band FDD and mmWave frequencies (as well as mid-band)
In short, 5G is expected to gain scale in 2020, enabled by coverage roll-out and availability of devices. Unlike previous cellular radio access technologies, it appears 5G will not be constrained by a lack of user equipment.
Voice and Communication Services Trends and Outlook
Service providers continue to evolve their voice networks to VoLTE-based services. These have now been launched in more than 200 networks in over 90 countries. VoLTE services are being deployed using cloud technologies, to enable cost-efficient network operations, easier capacity scaling and faster service deployment. VoLTE subscriptions, estimated at 2.1 billion at the end of 2019, are projected to reach 6.4 billion by the end of 2025 and to account for more than 85 percent of combined LTE and 5G subscriptions.
VoLTE will also be the foundation for enabling 5G voice calls, SMS and new types of communication services on various 5G devices. This will be deployed stepwise in 4G and 5G networks, using LTE-NR dual connectivity, Evolved Packet System fallback and voice over NR.
New use case uptake and device availability
There are more than 2,500 VoLTE-enabled device models. 2 The latest models also include the most recent high-definition voice codec Enhanced Voice Services (EVS). This provides improved audio and music quality within calls on VoLTE-capable devices, including 5G smartphones, as well as better call reliability across LTE and Wi-Fi.
More than 165 EVS-capable device models are available, and EVS has been deployed by 20 service providers.3 The first service providers have now launched voice calling capabilities on smart speakers using the same mobile phone number as on a smartphone. This builds on the VoLTE multi-device network capabilities, where several devices can be tied to the same phone number, such as phones, cellular smart watches, smart speakers and other devices. There are now more than 80 service provider networks with cellular smartwatches enabled with voice services. Video calling over LTE (ViLTE) is now provided in around 20 networks, and there are 395 device models4 available.
Other services based on VoLTE include additional phone lines on the same phone, group numbers, different types of enterprise collaboration services in combination with mobile HD voice, and voice in IoT devices. 5G-related service innovations for consumers, enterprises and industries are being explored, including combinations with AR and VR, and interactive calling.
“The global total mobile data traffic is expected to reach around 38 exabytes per month by the end of the year, and is projected to grow by a factor of 4 to reach 160 exabytes per month in 2025. It represents the mobile data that over 6 billion people will consume using smartphones, laptops and a multitude of new devices 6 years from now”
Mobile Data Traffic Outlook
The global total mobile data traffic is expected to reach around 38 exabytes per month by the end of the year, and is projected to grow by a factor of 4 to reach 160 exabytes per month in 2025. It represents the mobile data that over 6 billion people will consume using smartphones, laptops and a multitude of new devices 6 years from now.
Smartphones continue to be at the epicenter of this development as they generate most of the mobile data traffic – more than 90 percent today and 95 percent projected in 2025. Populous markets that are early with 5G are likely to lead traffic growth over the forecast period. By 2025, we expect that 45 percent of total mobile data traffic will be carried by 5G networks.
Large variations in traffic growth across regions Traffic growth can be very volatile between years and can also vary significantly between countries, depending on local market dynamics. In the US, the traffic growth rate declined slightly during 2018 but recovered to previously expected growth rates during 2019. In China, 2018 was
a year of record traffic growth. India‘s traffic growth continued its trajectory and it remains the region with the highest usage per smartphone and month.
Globally, the increase in mobile data traffic per smartphone can be attributed to three main drivers: improved device capabilities, an increase in dataintensive content and more affordable data plans.
By 2025, 500 million additional smartphone users are expected in India In the India region, the average monthly mobile data usage per smartphone has seen an extraordinary increase in recent years, becoming the highest in the world. A key factor has been the rapid adoption of 4G, boosted by a disruptive entrant in the market in 2016. Low prices for mobile broadband services, affordable smartphones and people’s changing video viewing habits have continued to drive monthly usage growth in the region. Only 4 percent of households have fixed broadband, making smartphones the only way to access the internet3 in many cases.
Total traffic is projected to triple, reaching 22EB per month in 2025. This comes from two factors: high growth in the number of smartphone users and an increase in average usage per smartphone. A total of 500 million additional smartphone users are expected in India by 2025. Even if the traffic per existing smartphone user continues to grow significantly over time, the increase in the average traffic per smartphone is expected to moderate as more consumers in India acquire smartphones.
In addition, the mass-market adoption of advanced use cases fueled by 5G is expected later in India than in other regions. Nevertheless, the average monthly traffic per smartphone is expected to increase to around 24GB in 2025.
In North America, future monthly GB growth depends on 5G services adoption The monthly average usage of mobile data in North America is expected to reach 45GB per smartphone by 2025. The major service providers have all launched 5G, initially focused on building capacity in the high- and mid-band spectrum. On top of that, we expect 5G in low-band, increased penetration of 5G devices, and early 5G adopters to drive traffic growth.
But, even if there is strong traffic growth today, the adoption of immersive consumer services using VR and AR is expected to lead to big increases in traffic per smartphone toward the end of the period. By 2025 the penetration of 5G subscriptions is set to be the highest of all regions at 74 percent. The Western Europe traffic growth rate follows a similar pattern to that expected in North America. However, the more fragmented market situation is expected to lead to later mass-market adoption of 5G and therefore a somewhat lower traffic per smartphone in 2025 than North America.
North East Asia traffic growth rate reaches an all-time high Attractive data plans, as well as innovative mobile apps and content, have pushed up monthly mobile data usage in North East Asia, particularly in China. The rapid growth in smartphone subscriptions is expected to continue, with China alone set to add around 170 million smartphone subscriptions between 2019 and 2025, further driving data traffic growth.
With 5G set to capture a lot of early adopters, we continue to expect high growth numbers in North East Asia. In South Korea, 5G mobile data traffic per subscriber exceeded 25GB per month in August. The Middle East and Africa region is expected to have
the highest growth rate during the forecast period, increasing total mobile data traffic by a factor of 7 between 2019 and 2025.
The average data per smartphone is expected to reach 18GB per user per month in 2025 in the Middle East and Africa region – as SubSaharan Africa is expected to reach on average 7GB.
South East Asia and Latin America are expected to follow similar trends over the next six years on a regional level, while the individual countries can show very different growth rates for traffic per smartphone. Traffic growth is driven by coverage build-out and continued adoption of 4G, linked to a rise in smartphone subscriptions and increases in average data usage per smartphone.
The data traffic per smartphone is expected to reach 21GB and 22GB per month respectively in South East Asia and Latin America. In Central and Eastern Europe, growth is also fueled by 4G adoption but the region has a somewhat higher traffic per subscriber starting point. Over the forecast period, the monthly traffic per smartphone is expected to increase from 6GB to 24GB per month. It is important to bear in mind that there are significant variations in monthly data consumption within regions, with individual countries and service providers having considerably higher monthly consumption than any regional averages.
IoT Connections Outlook
The massive IoT technologies, NB-IoT and Cat-M1, continue to be rolled out around the world. 2G and 3G connectivity still enable the majority of IoT applications, but during 2019 the number of Massive IoT connections are estimated to have increased by a factor of 3, reaching close to 100 million at the end of the year.
Massive IoT primarily consists of wide-area use cases, connecting massive numbers of low-complexity, lowcost devices with long battery life and relatively low throughput. NB-IoT and Cat-M technologies complement each other, and many service providers are deploying both technologies. Out of the 114 service providers2 identified as having launched at least one of the NB-IoT or LTE-M technologies, close to 25 percent have launched both technologies. At the end of 2025, NB-IoT and Cat-M are projected to account for 52 percent of all cellular IoT connections.
Broadband IoT mainly includes wide-area use cases that require higher throughput, lower latency and larger data volumes than Massive IoT technologies can support. LTE is already supporting many use cases in this segment. By the end of 2025, 28 percent of cellular IoT connections will be broadband IoT, with 4G connecting the majority.
Critical IoT includes both wide-area and local-area use cases that have requirements for extremely low latency and ultra-high reliability. The first modules supporting Critical IoT use cases are expected to be deployed in 2020. Only a small fraction of total cellular IoT connections will be Critical IoT in 2025.
North East Asia is leading the global adoption of cellular IoT. At the end of 2019, it is estimated that the region will account for 60 percent of all cellular IoT connections, a figure set to increase to 68 percent in 2025. This reflects both the ambition and size of the cellular IoT market in this region.